Pakistan is just one of 142 countries that has signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), but is arguably the flagship partner among the group. BRI is an infrastructure investment project and aims to bring between $1 to $8 trillion dollars in development initiatives to global railways, highways, power plants, hydropower dams, and ports under the BRI umbrella. However, since the two governments formalized the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a framework of infrastructure connectivity, there have been strong concerns from the Pakistani public about the social and environmental costs of Chinese investment. 

CPEC’s biggest achievement to date is the development of a port in Balochistan’s ancient fishing town of Gwadar. Besides the massive new port, billions of dollars in Chinese investment has built a 300 MW coal plant with more projects in the works, including an international airport. But large protests in Gwadar in the fall of 2021 are failing to lift people out of poverty and instead sparking social unrest. 

Pakistani analysts have argued that Chinese industries and Pakistani partners have largely ignored the environmental and social impact assessments of CPEC, creating a governance gap that threatens Pakistan’s water and air quality, biodiversity, and potentially the future of CPEC. 

Pakistan is among the top ten countries most affected by extreme weather events, making the country vulnerable to irregular rainfall, drought, heat waves, and increased glacial melting. Water stress, natural resource degradation, air pollution, and climate change are among the country’s top environmental challenges. By 2025, the country could face a shortage of 31-million-acre feet of water, estimated to be around a third of its annual agricultural water use. Any negative environmental impact of CPEC is only going to exacerbate these problems.

Bumpy road on Pakistan’s path to progress

Large areas of Pakistan have been deforested to make way for the highway construction and road networks under CPEC. More than 54,000 fruit trees have been cut down in northern Pakistan. Deforestation exacerbates severe droughts and flooding. Once these roads are completed, they will carry up to 7000 trucks per day, releasing 36.5 million tons of carbon dioxide during their journey from the Pakistan-China border to the Gwadar port. 

Due to Pakistan’s crippling energy shortages, an estimated $33 billion of CPEC projects are directed towards energy infrastructure, with the main goal to generate cheaper electricity and move away from the reliance on oil. So far, a third of the projects have built coal-fired plants. 

Carbon emissions from the coal plants could have serious consequences for air pollution in the country. Two of Pakistan’s biggest cities, Lahore and Karachi, consistently rank among the most polluted cities in the world, with Lahore topping the list throughout the last few years, registering an air quality index (AQI) of over 350. Even though Pakistan has added 14,000 megawatts to its grids due to CPEC investments, the environmental and public health costs of air pollution and carbon emissions from these coal plants are a concern. Pollution from coal plants can cause long-term health risks and pollution-related deaths, while also hindering Pakistan’s opportunity to become a renewable energy leader.

Negative ripple effects from the Gwadar port

China aims to tap into southern Pakistan’s access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean and connect its western province of Xinjiang to the port in Gwadar by land. The deep seaport has been in operation since 2016 and China has been given port management for the next 40 years. 

Fishing has been the main source of income for people in Gwadar for centuries—fisher folk comprise 80 percent of the population. The Pakistani government hoped that investments from CPEC would bring new jobs and economic growth to Gwadar, however, the economic benefits have yet to be seen. Instead, anger is growing among the local population because of natural resource extraction and a lack of basic necessities like water and energy. Gwadar’s fisherfolk have long feared that the encroachment of the bigger and more efficient Chinese fishing trawlers off the coast of Gwadar will result in all of the stock being depleted and exported to China. Their fears have become reality, with many now unable to sustain themselves and compete with the large Chinese fishing vessels.

Last June, fishermen and members of civil society organizations protested against plans to grant Chinese trawlers fishing rights in Gwadar. Illegal fishing already occurs and locals’ fears that fish were being exported to China were recently verified when the Pakistani government caught Chinese vessels illegally fishing. Speaking to The Guardian, 70-year-old fisherman Akbar Raess said, “The Chinese trawlers are here to end our livelihood. We will protest against them until the government stops granting them fishing rights.” 

Since mid-November of 2021, there have been continuous sit-in protests in Gwadar, including women and children, led by the Gwadar Ko Huqooq Do Tehreek (Give Rights to Gwadar Movement). Their list of demands include access to water and energy and an end to the “trawler mafia.” Instead of meeting the demands of the protestors, the government has responded by sending 5,500 more personnel to increase police presence in the city. If the demands of people from Gwadar are not met, then the goals of CPEC to bring prosperity to the country must be seriously questioned throughout Pakistan.

Ways forward

CPEC is the flagship project of the BRI and the Gwadar port was supposed to be its crowning gem. Sadly, there are already massive doubts about its viability and people are questioning whether or not it will deliver on its promises. 

Both Islamabad and Beijing need to integrate Environmental Impact Assessment (EIAs) and Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) to ensure that the projects are environmentally and socially sustainable. In an interview with Blake Berger, who works on BRI at the Asia Society, Berger said that “Pakistan needs to ensure that domestic regulations on infrastructure development mandate that an EIA/SIA be conducted at the very beginning of each project, is inclusive, publicly available, and comprehensively engaged local communities and stakeholders impacted by the project.” He said that the Chinese leadership should mandate a government-wide policy that all BRI and overseas projects incorporate and ensure that EIA/SIAs are conducted in an open and transparent manner and shared publicly before any concrete is poured. 

When local communities are unaware of the project protests arise. “By undertaking the fundamental due diligence at the very beginning of a project helps ensure that problems are seen early and can be addressed or mitigated,” said Berger.

The onus lies with both Pakistan and China to make sure the development projects under CPEC are meeting environmental standards and not stirring social unrest. If Pakistan’s people are not seeing the fruits of development under CPEC, and the infrastructure development leaves a trail of environmental destruction, it is clear who is really paying.