As the climate crisis continues to worsen, climate finance remains a fraction of what is needed. The Climate Policy Initiative estimates that $579 billion was spent on average on climate finance in 2017/18. This includes domestic and international investment from both the public and private sectors towards climate mitigation and adaptation actions. Of this amount, only $30 billion—five percent—was allocated for climate adaptation. This amount stands in stark contrast to $180 billion, which the Global Commission on Adaptation estimates is needed every year to build resilience to current and future climate impacts. This catastrophic funding gap is intensifying climate security threats and elevating the vulnerability of people across the world, particularly in coastal urban centers.

In this resource scarce environment, decision-makers need targeted risk information to increase financial flows and ensure that limited resources are being directed to safeguard people, their livelihoods, and to build a more resilient future. In response, the Stimson Center developed the Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Index (CORVI), a tool which compares a diverse range of ecological, financial, and political risks connected to climate change, to produce a coastal city risk profile. With implementation partners such as the Ocean Policy Research Institute of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation and academic institutions across the world, the information is designed to help decision-makers prioritize actions to build resilience and access climate finance.

Coastal cities at the forefront of the climate crisis

The world’s coasts are becoming increasingly urban. According to the UNs most recent World Urbanization Prospects, 55 percent of the world’s population are in urban areas. This is expected to grow to 68 percent by 2050. Approximately 40 percent of the global population lives within 100 km of the coast, and coastal cities are among the fastest growing population centers on the planet.

In addition to direct climate hazards, coastal cities face risks that originate outside the city limits. Inland, severe droughts and heat threaten agricultural production, resulting in increased migration from displaced farmers to urban centers and food price spikes. Marine ecosystems and fisheries play a critical role in supporting the blue economy of many urban areas. However, the services they provide are under threat from rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and warming ocean temperatures. This risk is compounding poor waste management and pollution in many coastal cities.These cities are home to millions, are engines for economic prosperity and innovation, and house important social, cultural, and political institutions. However, they are also at the forefront of the climate crisis. Extreme weather poses an existential threat to many coastal cities. Globally, it is estimated that rising sea levels and storm surge could result in the loss of one trillion dollars each year by 2050. In November, the Philippines was struck by two powerful storms—Cyclone Goni and Typhoon Vamco—which damaged  137,000 homes and completely inundated Tueguegarao, a city with a population of 150,000. After a record 2020 hurricane season, coastal cities in the United States, Caribbean, and Central America must plan for storms which continue to grow in intensity.

These interconnected issues have profound consequences for the social and political health of coastal areas. Climate-related risks undermine the economic, food, and environmental security of cities, have the potential to increase tension and unrest, and hamper efforts to build resilience. The urban poor, who often live in informal housing and work in vulnerable industries such as fishing and tourism, are particularly susceptible to these impacts. To build resilience where it matters most, decision-makers need access to data and assessments which integrate complex climate impacts across the land and seascape.

Plugging data gaps to improve decision making

To provide a holistic assessment of current and future climate impacts for a coastal city, the CORVI tool compares a diverse set of threats to produce a risk profile. These risks are displayed across 10 categories, grouped under ecological, financial, and political risk. The categories are in turn made up of close to 100 indicators, covering a range of issues such as the vulnerability of infrastructure at airports and housing, the health of marine ecosystems, and urbanization dynamics. Every indicator and category is scored using a 0-10 risk scale, and is relative to other cities in a region, providing a simple reference for decision-makers looking to categorize and pinpoint risk.

While empirical data on the impacts of climate change continues to improve, gaps remain. Many low and middle-income countries, which are most vulnerable to climate change, often lack the capacity to gather quality data. Despite this, decision-makers need information today if they are to build resilience before it is too late. To overcome this, CORVI combines empirical and survey data from local experts using structured expert judgement to provide a more complete picture on how climate-related risks are impacting a city.

Building resilience where it matters most

CORVI was initially piloted in Castries, Saint Lucia and Kingston, Jamaica. Both risk profiles integrate environmental, economic, and political factors to provide a detailed assessment of climate-related risks impacting each city. Despite the challenges posed by COVID-19, results from both assessments have begun to influence urban resilience planning.

Since the completion of the CORVI assessment in Jamaica, the government has established a new Ministry of Housing, Urban Renewal, Environment, and Climate Change, with a focus on climate impacts in urban settings. Similar to CORVI, this new super ministry integrates climate-related risks with urban issues through a holistic lens. CORVI findings have also been a resource in efforts to unlock additional climate investment in Saint Lucia. Organized by the World Economic Forum and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in collaboration with the government of Saint Lucia, the Country Financing Roadmap initiative has integrated some CORVI findings into their own work on climate impacts, including the need for economic diversification, renewable energy promotion and the importance of ecosystem health. 

In 2021 CORVI is expanding, with additional assessments underway in the Asia Pacific (Chattogram, Bangladesh; Dagupan, Philippines; and Suva, Fiji) and East Africa (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Mombasa, Kenya). As more cities are added to the CORVI project, a comparative body of city level data will provide greater insights into the risks these cities face. This will be accompanied by an analytical data platform to display CORVI city results and further work to tailor technical results to the needs of decision-makers.

The UNDP 2020 Human Development Report makes clear that to meet the Sustainable Development Goals, resilience thinking must be integrated into every aspect of policy and planning. This includes adapting to climate impacts now and ensuring future development builds resilience with—instead at the expense of—the natural world. This cannot be done by solving problems in discrete silos; instead, decision-makers must consider the multidimensional and interconnected risks. In the face of climate complexity and with limited financial resources adaptation funding must increase. In this environment, CORVI is a valuable tool to identify and categorize risk across sectors, aid in the design of integrated policy solutions, and access climate investment to build resilient coastal cities.