As the warm relationship between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro comes to an end with the former’s electoral defeat in November 2020, the next two years (Bolsonaro is up for reelection in 2022) could prove to be strenuous for the bilateral relations of the two largest economies in the Western Hemisphere. President-elect Biden has signaled that combatting climate change will be a priority in his administration. Now, without the cover of a U.S. administration that denies climate change, Brazil could become further isolated in international environmental politics. All of this complicates the political realities for President Bolsonaro, whose political survival depends on maintaining his coalition of fanatical supporters, the agricultural sector, and former and current members of the military. Still, given U.S. concerns about Chinese influence in the region, the Biden-Bolsonaro relationship could prove to be low-key and practical.

The Bolsonaro and Trump Bromance

President Bolsonaro has been dubbed the “Trump of the Tropics,” and he often boasts about his close relationship with President Trump. Indeed, Stephen Bannon consulted for the former lower-chamber lawmaker’s presidential campaign in 2018 and continues to be a close political advisor to the President’s son, Eduardo Bolsonaro, a current and influential member of the lower chamber of deputies. From 2018 to 2020, while the two men served as their respective heads of state, the U.S.-Brazil relationship improved, although often more symbolically then substantively. Brazil was named a major non-NATO ally, the United States now supports Brazil’s membership into the OECD, and the two countries signed a technological safeguards agreement that will help Brazil’s space program.

Nevertheless, major issues continue unresolved. United States and Brazil trade relations are an example where the political bases of each president would not allow for major breakthroughs. The main areas of contention continue to be in commodities such as sugar, wheat, and ethanol. In 2019, Brazil was caught by surprise when its—and several other countries’—steel exports were targeted by U.S. tariffs. Bolsonaro staked a lot of his foreign policy on closer relations with the U.S. despite China being Brazil’s largest trading partner since 2009.

International Climate Change Politics

Then candidate Biden caught the attention of Bolsonaro during a U.S. Presidential debate when he mentioned creating an international fund of $20 billion to help Brazil preserve the Amazon rainforest. Biden went on to say that Brazil would face economic consequences if it did not reduce deforestation. Following Biden’s victory, the Brazilian President, rather than offering a congratulatory message, reiterated that his country’s sovereignty will not be threatened. Confronting climate change is a major priority for President-elect Biden, illustrated by his proposed $2 trillion in federal investment. Such an ambitious plan remains a possibility following the Senate special elections in Georgia that give Democrats a majority in the upper chamber. But given the slim majority and comments by conservative Democratic member Senator Joe Manchin, the filibuster will likely prove to be an impediment. Biden will, however, be able to rely on executive orders and focus on foreign policy, an area where U.S. presidents enjoy considerably more leeway.

Since taking office, President Bolsonaro has followed in President Trump’s footsteps, including threatening to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord (he did not ultimately withdraw). He has rejected international criticism of Brazil’s environmental policies, often framing the discussions in nationalist terms of sovereignty to appeal to his political base. This occurred at the same time that the Trump Administration was sucking most of the oxygen out of the room with “twitter diplomacy” and dramatic withdrawal from international agreements, notably the Paris Climate Accord, all of which afforded some cover to Bolsonaro to rant against globalism. With the United States and Europe now realigning on international climate change politics, there will likely be more pressure on Brazil to curb its deforestation and other environmental disasters.

Political and Economic Realities in Brazil

After the 2014-16 economic recession, Brazil faced limited fiscal options heading into the pandemic, although it managed to implement an assistance package that helped many of low-income citizens. Providing ongoing financial assistance will be a challenge, however, as Economic Minister Guedes tries to bring public debt back under control just when the World Bank projects Brazil will suffer its worst economic recession due to the pandemic.

Economic development in Brazil has tended and continues to focus on exporting commodities—principally soybeans, petroleum products, meat, iron and steel. Such development has come at the cost of environmental devastation and there is growing recognition that preserving major biomes like the Amazon and the Pantanal is critical to ensuring the economic future of the country. This is especially true for the country’s agrobusiness in the central and southern regions, which is dependent on the “flying river” that originates in Amazon region.

If the November 2020 Brazilian municipal elections are any indicator, Brazilians are rejecting far-right and far-left candidates in preference of more moderate candidates.  Although President Bolsonaro is vulnerable, his poll numbers have actually improved during the pandemic, likely due to the assistance package passed earlier this year. Bolsonaro’s embrace of such a public assistance package flies in the face of his more neoliberal allies but, with the package and the EU-Mercosur deal, the President has proven that he is willing to put economic considerations second to shoring up his political support.

Traditional Diplomacy to Bring (Some) Stability to Biden-Bolsonaro Relations

So are the United States and Brazil headed for a confrontational relationship in 2021? It’s unlikely. The future of United States and Brazil relations, while rocky, will likely be productive over the next two years as the U.S. reverts to more traditional diplomatic channels.

First, the Biden administration’s style of politics and diplomacy is likely to revert back to more predictable institutionalism, rather than the personal twitter diplomacy of the Trump era. A more traditional approach to diplomacy—where environmental and trade issues are haggled out beforehand by mid-level diplomats—may ultimately be more productive for both Biden and Bolsonaro. In the former’s case, he must contend with a progressive base that is concerned about Brazil’s environmental record and does not support a Brazilian president known for homophobic and sexist remarks. For Bolsonaro’s part, whenever international criticism befalls him, he buffers against it by rallying his radical base with calls to defend Brazil’s sovereignty against international communism and by propagating anti-globalist conspiracies. Most recently, he actively campaigned against a COVID-19 vaccine, hyping the risks of vaccines and going so far as to demand that citizens who take the vaccine sign a liability waiver to not hold the government accountable for any side effects.

The United States will likely push Brazil in international forums on its environmental policies as Biden seeks to reaffirm to the world the United States’ commitment on climate change action. Brazil could find itself isolated in the context of  a U.S. administration focused on climate change and pressure from other international actors, namely the European Union’s possible cancellation of the EU-Mercosur’s trade deal over Brazil’s environmental policies.

Additionally, the United States is keenly aware that neglect of Latin America has provided an opening for Chinese influence in the region. The Biden administration will be mindful of not pushing Brazil into China’s arms. The United States and Brazil also have mutual interests in the region, principally dealing with Venezuela. Despite attempts by previous Brazilian administrations to act as a connector between Caracas and Washington, the Venezuelan humanitarian crisis has become a destabilizing force in the region and Brazil has aligned itself with the current U.S. pressure campaign to oust Venezuelan President Maduro. A Biden administration will likely expand initiatives in the region beyond this issue to include battling corruption and efforts to bolster democracy.