Syria finds itself at a crossroads. Faced with the imminent need to prevent a relapse into renewed short-term insecurity, its government also must start to develop longer-term strategies to support recovery.

Generating peace dividends for Syria’s embattled population requires confronting the ecological threats which currently undermine basic human security across the country. Nowhere do these threats emerge more prominently than in its agricultural sector. Ensuring that this essential sector lives up to its potential as an engine for economic stabilization and peace will require a set of targeted – and climate-sensitive – investments and interventions.  

A Nation in Transition

Syria’s new government, headed by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its technocratic counterparts in the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), face a broad array of challenges. Estimated reconstruction costs exceed US$ 250 billion, including for short-term priorities that encompass addressing imminent humanitarian needs, rehabilitating essential infrastructure, emergency job creation, and the restoration of security and security sector reform. Medium- to long-term recovery priorities also loom large: industrial revival, fiscal and monetary reforms, constitutional and governance reorientations (particularly regarding Syria’s diverse ethno-social makeup), and the creation of legitimate transitional justice and reconciliation mechanisms.

Alongside these diverse priorities sits an equally existential environmental question. The role played by climate change in Syria’s descent into civil war in 2011 remains contested, but the challenges it poses for Syria’s recovery and reconstruction are much more evident.

Climate change-induced temperature and precipitation variability—as well as water scarcity— already contribute to severe socio-economic dislocation in rural areas. From 2020 onwards, the Levant experienced both exceptionally low rainfall (up to 95% below average) and a multi-year drought that significantly reduced crop yields. These developments have made the population’s access to food and water one of the most pressing humanitarian concerns in Syria. As of 2022, approximately 6.9 million people had access to their primary water source for only between 2-7 days per month.

Moreover, environmental degradation and desertification now further contribute to already high levels of displacement within the country, as farmers and pastoralists are forced to abandon increasingly unsustainable agricultural livelihoods.

Unmet climate adaptation needs and persistent fragility also threaten increased competition and conflict over access to resources that will undermine social cohesion within rural communities and jeopardize broader post-conflict recovery efforts. The majority of those active in the agricultural sector are ethnically Arab, but other minority groups, such as Kurds, are also active stakeholders in agricultural production, particularly in the cultivation of wheat and barley in northern regions like Al-Hasakah and Aleppo.

Syria’s conflict already had disrupted communal practices related to farming and resource management, eroding traditional cooperation and increasing internal strife as communities vie for dwindling resources. Continued instability and the destabilizing effects of climate change therefore pose an ongoing risk to established agricultural practices and the social integration of these diverse communities.

The Agricultural Sector’s Role In Climate-Resilient Recovery

Syria’s agricultural sector formed an important pillar of Syria’s pre-conflict economy. Fully 42.6% of Syrians resided in rural areas and just short of 20% of its pre-war labor force was engaged in primary, secondary, or tertiary agrifood production activities. Various agricultural value chains thereby constituted a direct or indirect economic resource for around 46% of Syria’s population and were responsible for around a third of Syria’s export economy.

The catastrophic conflict in Syria hit this sector hard. The cost of war-related damage is estimated at US$ 16 billion as of 2017. The resulting damage halved rural populations in the country between 2011 and 2016, as communities fled in the face of violence. This loss of human capital was also accompanied by the destruction of irrigation and water management infrastructure, the often deliberate targeting or capture of agricultural lands, and the soaring cost of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers or fuel. As a consequence of this comprehensive assault, the capacity of the sector to bounce back economically and cope with climate impacts is currently limited.

Yet the centrality of the agricultural sector to both short- and longer-term recovery and stabilization is clear. Recent humanitarian assessments suggest that access to food remains one of the highest priorities amongst communities in need. This is particularly due to soaring prices in stores and markets, which remain the primary source of food for most households. Revitalizing rural economies to ensure sufficient food supply and improve household purchasing power therefore demands the immediate restoration of agricultural productivity.

Improving the climate resilience of Syrian agricultural production systems to ensure that recovery efforts are not derailed by future climate shocks is equally vital. Key actions to do so include repairing damaged irrigation systems through emergency employment programs, distributing agricultural inputs such as drought-resistant seed varieties, and providing technical assistance to farmers to implement climate smart agricultural (CSA) practices.

Equally important for the sector’s recovery is the restoration of human capital. Creating appropriate conditions of return for millions of displaced populations originating from rural areas is key for this. Syrians residing in neighboring countries such as Jordan are often valued by host community members for their agricultural expertise. Supporting these existing capacities within the Syrian diaspora with the revitalization of vocational training systems will be critical to promote recovery at scale.

Finally, stabilizing and reopening international borders for the establishment of trade and transportation corridors will give a substantial boost to Syria’s agricultural export industry. Recent projections suggest that the combined GDP of Jordan and Lebanon could increase by $0.6 billion in 2025 and $1.8 billion in 2026 if trade relations resume.

Finding Regional and International Support

Unlocking the potential of the Syrian agricultural sector will require sustained international support. One key task in the medium- to long-term is support for Syrian authorities to equip farmers in strategic value chains with the capacities and resources to invest in climate resilient production techniques. Creating credit and financing schemes to purchase agricultural inputs and facilitate long-term investments in climate-resilient technologies, such as greenhouses, drip irrigation systems, solar pumps, or water harvesting infrastructure, would enhance the sector’s capacity to cope with (and adapt to) climate change. Reconstituting basin water management committees would additionally help promote sustainable collective water usage and provide avenues for cooperation for rural communities.

So, what hurdles exist to this necessary support? Some initial easing of economic restrictions and recent US waivers for secondary sanctions aimed at supporting Syrian recovery efforts have been positively received, but the overall unilateral sanction regime remains largely intact.

This sanction regime has had broad unintended consequences for the Syrian population, including by limiting access to essential goods and services for agricultural activities. Western decision-makers should provide a clear roadmap to permanent sanction relief for Syrian authorities to enable the resumption of regular business activity, international trade, and development assistance. This is necessary for resources and investment to be channeled into sustainable agricultural recovery.

Regional actors, such as the League of Arab States (LAS) and technical bodies like the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development (AOAD), will also likely play a key role. Integrating Syrian recovery priorities and objectives into existing regional food security initiatives, such as the Arab Programme for the Sustainability of Food Security (2021-2030), could facilitate crucial resource mobilization, investment, and technical support from within the region. Timely intervention into Syria’s agri-food sector is required to capitalize on opportunities for recovery, demonstrate peace dividends, and mitigate climate impacts.

Having identified the importance of restoring Syria’s agricultural sector to the nation’s reconstruction – and for reducing the risk of renewed widespread instability – the imperative for the Syrian government, donor communities, and regional and international partners to do so is both clear and compelling.