A number of highly respected research entities in the US and abroad—including the US National Intelligence Council and the European Union—produce hefty global trends reports. These valuable in-depth guides inform new policies (such as USAID’s just-released Democracy, Development and Human Rights Policy)—or refresh older ones. They focus on the risks, uncertainties, and opportunities that lie ahead for the international development community, and they can provide an empirical basis to shape ongoing and future aid programming.

Yet a different—and somewhat underutilized foresight approach (commonly called “Signs and Signals”)—is also having its day. This approach relies more on speculative information, rather than firmly anchored in trend data. And it has generated considerable interest. Indeed, Signs and Signals will be showcased at the upcoming UN Summit of the Future.

In a moment to consider potentially different approaches to forecasting events and trends, having a better sense of Signs and Signals is essential. Also important is understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty and why at the end of the day it may be wise to use the well-regarded global trends reports in tandem with Signs and Signals insights.

Risk Versus Uncertainty

The science and practice of strategic foresight has not been helped in gaining wider acceptance by its easily misunderstood terminology. At the core of this confusion is that several different terms related to its practice sound quite similar.

Let’s start with risk and uncertainty. Assessing future risk is dependent on measures or estimates of known perils. The concept of risk can be traced back to the world of finance, where a stock prospectus carefully warns about financial assumptions that might undercut future asset performance. Risk is also front and center for most of us when we consider buying a home or renting an apartment to guard against property perils like hurricanes. Financial and property risks are often quantified based on historical evidence.

Uncertainty, however, is different. Uncertainty can also describe the future, but the evidence for it is often weak. In terms of probabilities and outcomes, a common distinction between the two terms is that risk typically involves measurable probabilities, while neither the probabilities nor the outcomes are quantifiable when uncertainty dominates the discussion.

In an increasingly fast-paced world in which change occurs at breakneck speed, those seeking foresight often stay head of the curve by relying on what we call “Signs and Signals,” rather than more established data points.

The use of Signs and Signals gives us a hint of what the future might look like. But it relies upon evidence that is more speculative. It can be something that catches our attention: a headline, a discrete piece of a larger picture, or even a social media blip. Inputs for Signs and Signals may be specific to one area (Silicon Valley), or to one technology (the mind-computer interface). It even can consist of observations whose broader implications are not yet fully understood (human space colonization).

Signs and Signal may not yet scale, nor may they ever. (Think about a tasty taco with pico de gallo, avocado and cultured meat, that costs upwards of $25.) Speculating about the future using Sign and Signal can be a field day for futurists, however, since it enables them to better envision unexplored and unknown possibilities.

Capturing these Signs and Signals (and especially “weak” signals) does present a challenge. They are often hidden amidst the noise of today’s information onslaught, so deciding upon where and how to systematically look for them is critical. One established foresight approach to cull weak signals is horizon scanning, which systematically reviews anticipatory signs of potentially important outcomes, developments, and the emergence (or shifts) in trends.

Scanning Horizons at UNDP

The practice of horizon scanning has taken hold at the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) over a few short years as a network of more than 300 staffers there use this approach. Not surprisingly, these UNDP workers uncover hundreds of events and emerging trends that could impact development in the next 3 to 10 years.

In consultation with the International Science Council, others at UNDP, and outside experts, these in-house scanners chose the most promising signals, and then grouped them into themes to compile their inaugural 2023 Spotlight Report.

With the 2024 UN Summit of the Future fast-approaching, UNDP has just released an updated Spotlight Report, which uses roughly the same methodology, but shines a spotlight on intergenerational fairness. UNDP staffers produced 16 themes across 3 chapters that align with the spirit of the upcoming Summit.

A chapter on “Hope for an Equitable Future” examines signals that point to opportunities to engage the next generation on climate change, biodiversity loss and a degraded physical environment. This generation will also inherit challenges created by natural resource availability, a fast-changing work environment, and equitable access to knowledge, as well as new threats of nuclear and biological wars, and unintended consequences of rapid urbanization.

This chapter also explores new options to lessen the economic and health gaps between the rich and poor—as well as how younger generations (often excluded from policy making) are using expanding digital networks to make their voices heard. A pivotal question raised in this scan is how to better position the next generation in policy decision-making that impacts their future.

Technology also features directly in a chapter on “Hope for Responsible Technological Progress.” While headlines are full of rapid advances in generative AI, biotechnology, agriculture and food supply, and outer space, there also is a dark side to these developments as the information space fills with rampant disinformation, an accelerated race to develop the fastest chips, and a profusion of orbiting satellites fills the sky. The UNDP analysis points to the need for more international cooperation on space exploration, so that terrestrial conflicts are not simply transferred to a celestial location.

In another chapter called “Hope for Resilient and Connected Communities”, which benefits from this horizon scanning work, threats to the maintenance of strong community links emerge in an atmosphere of eroding trust and disagreements on fundamental truths. Dramatic changes in traditional lifetime patterns also play a role, including delays in marriage and childbearing and changes in work preferences from prior generations are increasingly frequent. Other challenges to greater community connectivity cited by UNDP have evolved from the common but unwelcome experience of growing loneliness and social distancing—which were a consequence of COVID-19 pandemic policies in many countries.

Looking to the Future

The 2024 UNDP Spotlight Report is a breath of fresh air, especially because it expands the field of play for how experts can forecast events. It relies not only upon empirical data, but also incorporates useful Signs and Signals inputs that emerge from active horizon scanning.

Some of these “weak” signals can help anticipate what to expect over coming years, and they should inspire development agencies, governments, multilateral organizations, and other institutions to get a head start on better aligning their services and fine-tuning their delivery systems.

Our world of growing uncertainty and greater complexity means that these signals, along with traditional global trends reports, should not only be part of the process, but also encourage greater use of another valuable foresight tool, scenario planning, to see beyond the immediate horizon and prepare accordingly.