In today’s episode of New Security Broadcast, ECSP Director Lauren Risi hosts three contributing authors of the international chapter of the recently released fifth National Climate Assessment. Dr. Roger Pulwarty is a Senior Scientist with the Physical Sciences Laboratory at NOAA; Dr. Andrea Cameron is a permanent military professor teaching policy analysis at the US Naval War College; and Dr. Geoff Dabelko is a Professor and Associate Dean with the Voinovich School of Leadership and Public Affairs at Ohio University and a senior advisor to ECSP. In the conversation, the authors discuss the implications of climate change for national and international security, and they delve into the international chapter and its significance for policymakers in the US and abroad.

Dr. Pulwarty on what the National Climate Assessment is and why it matters

The Global Change Research Act of 1990 mandated the US government to produce a statement, which they do every year, on the state of the climate within the US and issues related to that. So this is actually a congressionally mandated interagency effort. These are coordinated by the different agencies of the US Global Change Research Program, from NASA to NOAA and USGS to DOE. But they also engage a wide portfolio of partners and stakeholders from academia, the private sector, national governmental organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and other agencies.

Dr. Pulwarty on how the NCA is applied

The idea behind the National Climate Assessment is to provide information to guide the development of infrastructure, the management of risks, variability, and change. It is very much geared towards long-term climate change, but also much more recently towards things like extremes and interannual year-to-year variability for planning, disaster risk reduction, health and heat, ecosystem restoration, and resilient infrastructure development. The applications are very much geared towards the impacts and the use of that information with partners at the state and local levels, ranging from the public sector, cities, states, other local government counties, the private sector, people who invest and help support infrastructure planning, and people engaged in disaster risk reduction.

Dr. Cameron on the significance of the international chapter from a DOD perspective

There’s a lot of obvious connections that the US government has focused on…such as economics, trade, investments, and foreign aid and development. On the security side, we’re a little late to the game. So, it was really important, both in the fourth and fifth climate assessments, to have that security lens added, just to round out the discussion about how US international interests are affected.

Dr. Pulwarty on the general significance of the international chapter

Those of us who have worked on different international components of the change of global drivers, it’s not a surprise. But in the effort to link local to global and back down, we think the international chapter plays a central role in helping to provide insights on how risks that are networked around the world, from oil to food, security to water, even things like COVID, affect local places in the US, and then how local actions can take place even when that guidance to that extent plays a role. Over the last decade, the issue of security and its relationship to climate has not simply been an impact. But a determinant in many cases, of some of the risks has become more central.

On the four major takeaways of the report

We came up with four key messages. The first highlighted interdependence and systemic climate-related risks. The second one was about how climate change exacerbates risks to national security. The third key message was about economics, trade, and investments. We’re not just talking about all of the threats and risks; we’re also looking at the opportunities. Finally, climate change undermines sustainable development.

Dr. Cameron on how the NCA reflects changes since 2018

In the process of writing this, there’s been a lot that’s changed around the world. Some of the other key things that we drew out were really looking at the connection between stability and climate. We also realized that conflict in various places around the world can hinder climate change efforts, both adaptation and mitigation. Humanitarian relief needs, which we’ve seen across the board, have increased during the evolution of this project. We’ve highlighted migration a lot more because a lot of places around the world are looking at it closer. Finally, geoengineering was very low on our radar when we started, but by the time we were finishing the report, we felt it needed to be added and highlighted a little bit more by the end of the process.

Dr. Dabelko on the implications of COP28 and how the report should be used moving forward

I think it’s critically important for [the international community] to see the United States as it assesses its own national climate assessment, that it sees the international dimensions and what’s going on in other countries, with our partners and those sitting across the negotiating table, and that we’re taking it seriously and looking at ourselves and our actions. While certainly a prime target audience are local decision-makers in the United States, it also plays a critical role in empowering and informing us delegations and formal and informal track one and track two overseas in these processes as well.

Dr. Cameron:

I live in a world where not a lot of people prioritize climate change or even see the linkages with a climate security threat in the Department of Defense. My job was to kind of make sure it was readable from a security practitioner’s lens. I recommend it to everyone as the starting place for where to pursue interests in this topic.

Dr. Pulwarty:

Local is indeed critical, but we live in an interconnected world. It helps us make the case that the risks are in fact systemic, and it also lets us get a stronger sense that what happens in one part of the world affects us, or economics, or a sense of well-being and our partnerships for how we maintain security in the world.