China’s power sector makes up the lion’s share of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, but rising methane emissions from rice farming and livestock, nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizers, and CO2 from food transport could all hinder China’s progress toward its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Chinese policymakers could rein in agri-food emissions by modifying existing climate plans and policies. Climate-smart agriculture is not only a mitigation strategy, but also an adaptation strategy to intensifying extreme weather events like heatwaves and typhoons. The succession of climate change-fueled extreme weather events this past summer was rough for many Chinese farmers. Record high heat was followed by violent typhoons that damaged rice crops in Heilongjiang, which produces 20% of the country’s rice. Rice farmers in Heilongjiang’s Wuchang County had 40% of their crops flattened in the storm, which spurred online rumors that the Wuchang rice on the market was fake. Recent research shows that extreme climate events over the past two decades have likely reduced China’s rice production by 8.3%.  Besides being vulnerable to climate change, the agri-food system is a growing source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Methane emissions from rice farming and livestock production, nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizer use, and carbon emissions from food transport are all contributing to climate change. From agricultural production, food processing, packaging, and transport to retail, food consumption, and disposal, the global agri-food system is responsible for 31% of the world’s GHG.  A recent Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP) study on China’s agri-food system shows that GHG emissions from China’s agri-food system amounted to 1.6 billion tons of CO2e in 2020. Given the growing production of meat and dairy, the development of extensive cold chain networks, and the meteoric rise of food delivery services, agri-food emissions are likely to grow to 2.2 billion tons of CO2e by 2060. The power sector still makes up the lion’s share of China’s CO2 emissions at 5.7 billion tons in 2020, but the rise in food-related emissions could complicate the country’s progress toward its 2060 carbon neutrality goals.  While the United States has a well-funded climate-smart agriculture initiative and Europe is promoting agri-food sustainability through its Life Programme and Farm to Fork Strategy, China has not yet launched a comprehensive climate and agri-food strategy. In a move in that direction, in 2022, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission issued climate-smart agriculture guidelines, which lay the foundation for future policies and investments. In the short term, China could greatly curtail agri-food emissions by strengthening many existing policies.

Enhancing the Flavor of Existing Climate Actions

Many of China’s policies to promote green agricultural development, energy efficiency, and a circular economy, while not primarily designed to reduce GHG, can nevertheless reduce emissions from China’s agri-food system. For example, the full implementation of the 2021 Anti-food Waste Law could help mitigate methane emissions from food waste.  We estimate that simply enhancing many existing laws, as opposed to devising new ones from scratch, could reduce agri-food GHG emissions by 60% in 2050 compared to the business-as-usual scenario. Expanding these laws to the agri-food sector also could bring significant biodiversity and public health co-benefits.  A short sample of some policies highlights the opportunities: For the last 18 years, China’s annual Policy Document No. 1 has made agricultural and rural development a top priority. Based on this document, Chinese government ministries could take targeted policy actions such as nitrogen management, conservation tillage, and biogas recovery from livestock manure that could contribute to GHG reductions. Since 2005, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has promoted local agricultural extension centers to conduct soil testing and make fertilizer recommendations. With support from Chinese tech companies, in recent years farmers have been able to use precision agriculture technologies to tailor their nitrogen management to site-specific conditions. Better nitrogen management reduces GHG releases from soil.  Conservation agriculture, which includes farming practices like no-till agriculture and cover crops, has been adopted in Northeast China to restore soil fertility and promote soil health. These practices also help sequester carbon in soil. A recent FAO study underscores a pathway for this practice to be expanded in the North China plains.  China’s circular economy policies, which are designed to reduce, reuse, and recycle materials, also include actions to reduce food packaging materials and promote the use of non-plastic agricultural mulch films. Plastic mulch reduces the need for pesticides and conserves water, but the use of biodegradable films can also make it a climate-smart agricultural practice. Policies and financing to reduce plastic in the agri-food supply chain can lead to GHG reductions. Clean energy policies can also be applied to GHG emission reductions in the agri-food system. China’s Green and High Efficiency Cooling Action Plan promotes more industry-level energy-efficient standards and targets for air conditioners and refrigerators. These standards could facilitate major GHG reductions in the cold chain transportation for food delivery.

Big Mitigation Punch of Post-Production Climate Action

While agricultural production is currently the largest source of emissions in China’s agri-food system, we estimate that it will account for only 37% of the total mitigation potential in the agri-food system in 2050. The post-production components, which constitute 63% of the total mitigation potential, will continue to offer new opportunities for mitigation. A big one is reducing food waste. China’s anti-food waste law, which took effect in 2021, stipulates that food service providers will face a penalty if they induce or mislead consumers into excessive ordering. Moreover, restaurants are now required to provide anti-food waste information to consumers. In addition, shops that sell near-expired food are emerging in many cities throughout China, a business that keeps food waste out of landfills. Another area with large scope for mitigation is food transport. With policy support for new energy vehicles, some logistics companies have started using electric food delivery vehicles for short-distance food transport within cities. In Chinese megacities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, almost all food delivery drivers are now riding electric bikes. The implementation and scaling-up of these mitigation actions require enhanced policy guidance and financial support.

Hunger for a Comprehensive Carbon Neutrality Strategy

For China to tap into the full mitigation potential in the agri-food system, policymakers will need to devise a comprehensive carbon neutrality strategy. Such a strategy would allow China to facilitate mitigation actions from farms to fork to disposal.    Unlocking the full mitigation potential of China’s agri-food system also requires strengthening policy and financial support for farmers, businesses, and consumers. China has a high proportion of smallholder farmers who are both vulnerable to climate change and important participants in GHG mitigation. Development for mitigation technologies in the agri-food system, and their adoption at scale, requires greater infusions of private capital. Commercializing these technologies could happen faster with government support to reduce the cost of adoption. Consumers also have a decisive influence on the scale and structure of food production and the way food is served, making the promotion of behavioral change an important component of GHG reductions in the agri-food system. That is a lot of food for thought.