When COP28 begins in the United Arab Emirates in late November of this year, the multifaceted connections between climate and conflict are expected to receive greater attention from participants than they have at previous conferences.  

While there is scant direct causal evidence to suggest that climate change causes conflict, there is a growing body of information that it can influence the risk of conflict by hurting economies, changing broad patterns of human behavior and movement, and straining social cleavages.  

Warring factions or parties in a conflict may take advantage of droughts or extreme events to gain control over a scarce resource. Conflict also reverses progress made toward climate adaptations by making it riskier to invest in building resilience to climate impacts.  

These factors enumerated above also have the power to converge and thus make conflict-affected or fragile states far more vulnerable to climate change-induced shocks than stable countries. 

Middle East in the Crosshairs 

Several countries in the Middle East fall squarely at this intersection of conflict and climate-affected states. The region is expected to rise well beyond the 2 degrees Celsius limit that would forestall the worst impacts, largely because its desert areas create a feedback loop that increases temperatures faster than regions in the rest of the world. 

Out of the many impacts of a warming world on the Middle East, water scarcity illustrates just how widespread (and interconnected) the links between climate and conflict can be.  

The Middle East is one of the most water-starved regions in the world, a situation that will cost countries in the region between 6 and 14 percent of their GDP by 2050.  

At an event hosted by the Middle East Institute (MEI), Mohammed Mahmoud, a Senior Fellow and Director of the Institute’s Climate and Water Program, observed that this state of affairs has compelled coastal governments in the region to move toward expensive desalination projects. 

Water scarcity also creates opportunities for insurgents and extremists to weaponize water in the region. In his new book, Weaponizing Water: Water Stress and Islamic Extremist Violence in Africa and the Middle East, Marcus King outlines how extremist conflicts in Syria and Iraq illustrate the use of water scarcity as a tool of power and influence. He found that there is a “correlation between the spheres of influence of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and the driest lands or areas of sparse vegetation in some of the most arid regions on earth.”  

Also speaking at the MEI event, Hayder Alabdali, who is a Climate and Environment Officer in Baghdad with the ICRC, confirmed that ISIS forces in the region actively control key water resources to exploit difficult situations for their advantage.   

Water scarcity also has significant public health impacts. Reducing the amount of water that populations use for hygiene increases the risk of spreading infectious disease. The recent outbreak of cholera in Syria illustrates how water scarcity can cause humanitarian crises to go from bad to worse, compounding the effects of an earthquake and protracted civil war.  

Climate Adaptation in a Conflict Context 

The rippling effects of climate change bring additional strains to countries reeling from civil wars and insurgencies and erode people’s ability to cope with such crises. While investing in climate adaptation has been lauded as a measure to reduce this impact, implementing climate adaptations requires the ability to think beyond the short-term. 

Conflict not only makes it difficult for governments to plan, but it also often destroys any previous progress they have made on adaptation. Mahmoud observed that while issues of cost and return on investment always arise when implementing climate adaptations, conflict makes the calculus much more complex. 

Another major impact of conflict on climate adaptation is donor reluctance to finance adaptation projects in affected countries. A report by the International Committee of the Red Cross found that: “Despite the Paris Agreement’s commitment to increase support for LDCs [Least Developed Countries], between 2016 and 2018, they only received some 14% of the total climate funding accounted for by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), with nearly 70% of all climate finance provided to middle-income countries and 2% to small island developing states.” 

When investments in adaptations are made, the risks amplified in conflict settings mean that they are often directed to smaller projects that have a low cost of implementation. Alabdali noted that while some projects, such as providing new technology for reducing water consumption in Iraq’s agricultural communities, have had success, broader investments are needed to see real change.  

Climate and Conflict at COP 

Prior the upcoming COP28, the thorny issue of climate and conflict was more often glimpsed from the sidelines. Chris Frassetto, Senior Advisor for Partnerships for COP28, laid out the upcoming conference’s ambitions to tackle this issue. The conference will be an opportunity to bring together the climate, peace, humanitarian, and financial sectors to seek the cooperation and dialogue that can produce solutions.  

Organizations and conflict-affected countries have long called for flexible financing and initiatives that de-risk climate investments in conflict zones from the sidelines. Yet the solutions that appear simple on paper are difficult to implement on the ground. More funding needs to be made available for climate adaptation worldwide, especially as wealthier countries have fallen well short of their commitment to provide $100 billion in annual climate finance. And a greater proportion of funds need to be directed toward scaling up the work of organizations already operating in conflict zones.  

While climate finance took center stage at COP27, achieving the Global Goal on Adaptation will require rethinking finance efforts to make climate adaptation work in a conflict context. The greater attention and dialogue allocated to conflict and climate at COP28 offers a platform to rehash those efforts and help adapt the most vulnerable countries to climate change.