When cows eat, they burp. And what they exhale generates almost a third of global methane emissions – a greenhouse gas 80 times more potent in warming the climate than CO2. So tracking this short-lived climate gas is crucial.  

Six miles from Bakersfield, California, at the Bear 5 cow feedlot, this work is starting to happen. High-resolution satellites are being used for the first time at the feedlot to track methane emissions from cow burps. Measuring cow belches from space is bringing critical attention to the brewing climate issues from cows. After all, the methane produced by these gassy animals in one year at Bear 5 cow feedlot alone could power more than 15,000 homes in California.  

Yet despite this significant methane hoofprint, few countries have regulations to rein in cow methane emissions. China and the United States are the two superpowers of the meat and dairy market, but neither nation has included the livestock sector in their methane mitigation policies, nor are they a part of the Nationally Determined Commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement.   

The US-China Joint Glasgow Declaration signed at COP26 put methane right at the center of bilateral climate work, opening a window for collaboration on livestock methane mitigation. Indeed, local governments, universities, and companies in both countries are taking innovative bottom-up climate actions.  

The state of California’s incentive-based approach stands out as a roadmap for both countries to move forward. Its specific regulations to support livestock methane reduction are coupled with well-developed carbon markets and a push for rapid advances on biotech solutions. To achieve measurable progress in livestock methane reduction, the Chinese and US governments should scale-up and improve on such existing bottom-up efforts to build solid regulatory policies and science on cow methane emissions.  

Taking the Bull by the Horns  

Taking climate action on livestock production has been tricky for both Chinese and US policymakers. China’s ambitious 2060 carbon neutrality plan left out the livestock sector due to government concerns about food security. And while the Biden Administration is bullish on reducing overall methane, its policy has contradictions. In 2021, the US signed into the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to cut methane by 30 percent by 2030. Yet US policymakers have failed to crack down on livestock-related emissions, citing the lack of cost-effective technologies. Thus, the beef industry in the United States remains largely unaffected by any national methane regulation.  

By giving cows a pass in the methane regulation plans, both China and the United States miss out on achieving quick wins to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Effective methane mitigation in the agriculture sector could slow down global warming by 30 percent in 10 years. If emissions from cows stop, methane in the atmosphere will dissipate in 12 to 15 years. “The potential for such quick payoff is exactly why we need to pay more attention to it,” explained Ken Alex, Director of Project Climate at UC Berkeley, at a recent Wilson Center event.  

While national regulations languish, US and Chinese scientists have been active in conducting research and creating pilot projects at dairies and laboratories, creating innovative strategies to halt a cow methane. Policymakers in both countries should prioritize regulations to incentivize and scale up such sub-national mitigation efforts, such as California’s comprehensive cow methane reduction policies.  

California Cows Lead the Herd  

As the home to 5.2 million cows, California has one of the most ambitious policy agendas for livestock methane mitigation in the United States. To date, it is the only state that passed a legal mandate, State Bill 1383, to reduce livestock-related methane emissions. Powered by this law, California has established an effective incentive-based and climate-smart approach to minimize cow methane production.   

At the core of this agenda, California has one of the largest carbon markets in the country, which provides incentives to reduce methane emissions. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program encourages the use and production of clean transportation fuels and allows diesel and gas producers to buy carbon credits from dairy farmers who capture and utilize cow methane as a transportation fuel. As Matthew Botill, Division Chief at California Air Resources Board, highlighted at a Wilson Center event, California’s environmental credits programs have enabled a stream of money flow from other GHG-emitting sectors to dairy and livestock industry, sustaining more emission reduction efforts from cattle farmers.  

California has also made immense progress in biotechnologies that promise to cut cow methane. For instance, red seaweed has emerged as a powerful component to reduce methane within cattle’s digestive systems. Dr. Ermias Kebreab from UC Davis said at a Wilson Center event that while further progress awaits, the next few years will likely produce concrete feed additive solutions to cut cow emissions by more than 30 percent. Other US states are already learning from California’s strategy. For instance, New York’s Climate Scoping Plan also adopted more stringent limitations on dairy methane emissions.   

California’s blueprint might also provide a valuable model for Chinese livestock methane mitigation agenda, which leans more heavily on biogas capture of manure methane. While China is moving forward with new financing policies, such as the first commercial cattle breeding methane emission index insurance, its market incentives for farmers remain limited. By learning and collaborating with California, Chinese policymakers might also learn of ways to create economic incentives for dairy and cattle farmers to lower methane output. 

While California’s efforts lead the way in an area where the two countries do not compete, China also has lessons to offer the United States. China is a leader in biogas capture — an area where the United States has generally lagged behind.  

Hu Tao, the director of Lakestone Institute for Sustainable Development, highlighted a successful cross-provincial partnership between a large cattle operation and a Chinese biogas power company: “If China can expand this kind of collaboration, it will not only help reduce nationwide livestock methane emissions but also maximize the value of methane gas.” His institute has developed a new small-scale methane capture facility for organic wastes, including cattle manure. The captured methane feeds into a microgrid with battery storage and solar panels to generate electricity for the dairy and surrounding community. The whole facility is controlled remotely by an AI system to lower maintenance costs. Hu Tao has been traveling around China to test the system in multiple rural communities.  

Mind the Bovine Policy Gap  

The methane clock is ticking. Meat and dairy consumption is growing worldwide and global methane emissions reached their fourth-highest yearly increase in 2022. Such an exponential rise demands prompt actions from China and the United States to fill the methane policy gaps and rein in the large GHG hoofprint of cows. Since the meat and dairy industries largely remain inactive in handling the unabating methane production, the two countries cannot rely on the private sector to cut emissions voluntarily. 

At COP 27, when Chinese climate envoy Xie Zhenhua announced China’s National Action Plan on Methane, agriculture was mentioned as one key area. Yet this plan still has not been issued and Chinese policymakers (like their US counterparts) are focusing more heavily on methane from the oil and gas sectors. “Cattle farming in China has just emerged, so it appears less urgent for policymakers,” said Hu Tao.  

Shortly after the Joint Glasgow Agreement, Biden Administration also released a Methane Reduction Action Plan. However, the plan relies on voluntary actions and does not mandate emission cuts from animal agriculture.   

Through the Glasgow Declaration, the two countries have laid down the groundwork to jointly patch up the cow-shaped policy hole and create more robust policy interventions in the beef and dairy industries. They also can join together in science and successful subnational actions to “moo–ove” faster in this field.