The latest report from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights the small window of opportunity available to achieve climate resilient development, despite the growing risks of reaching tipping points. Environmental advocates argue that the UN’s warnings should remain front-and-center, including those that highlight worsening climate trends already experienced by developing nations.

For example, nearly 1.8 million people still live near contaminated or stagnant water several months after devastating floods swept over Pakistan during the last monsoon season. Meanwhile, Argentina faces its worst drought in six-decades, threatening agricultural zones. According to research by Chatham House, the probability of a 10 percent yield loss or more by the world’s largest producers of corn could increase between 40 and 70 percent by the 2040s.

“This current drought may end up costing Argentina billions of dollars in loss export revenue,” observed Dr. Christopher Sabatini, senior research fellow for Latin America at Chatham House, “but what many fear is the impact of continued warming on global food supplies, already constrained by the Russian war in Ukraine and supply chain challenges caused by the pandemic,”

These examples illustrate the dramatic outcomes that will emerge from climate-induced natural hazards, as well as a growing acknowledgment that the climate crisis will impact developing nations disproportionately. Yet the specific threat of sea-level rise unites developed nations with those of the Global South, and could lead to greater solidarity and interdisciplinary research. According to the World Economic Forum, nearly three-quarters of the world’s population live within approximately 30 miles of the ocean, and only 15 percent of coastal areas are ecologically intact, with much of the coastal environment degraded by human activities.

Our Ocean: Blue Connections for Good or Bad?

Recent events point to positive developments on maritime issues, including Panama’s hosting of the Eighth Our Ocean Conference, and the growing role of the U.S. in strengthening regional cooperation and marine conservation in the Americas. A historic treaty to protect the high seas was also agreed upon last month by U.N. member states, after nearly two decades of negotiations. Additionally, the Biden Administration recently released its Ocean Climate Action Plan, which identifies ocean-climate priorities and important opportunities for the United States.  

Yet a host of growing problems—ocean acidification, marine waste and plastic pollution, overfishing, and other environmental impacts—may continue to evade actions taken with good intentions by international diplomats and policymakers.

Sea-level rise will remain one of the most consistent of these threats. Beyond biodiversity loss and the toll on human health and well-being, the economic cost of coastal adaptation for the developing world is expected to be between $26 and $89 billion each year by the 2040s. These cost estimates are largely dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise, however, and to a significant degree, accurately assessing them is still very much a moving target.

For example, scientists are currently studying Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier (nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier”) in order to understand its impact on future sea-level rise. Evan Bloom, a senior fellow in the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute, says that “recent evidence suggests that this massive glacier and its surrounding area are unstable and moving at an alarming rate.”

The uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of sea-level rise makes planning for future scenarios incredibly difficult. But efforts to do so are essential.

An international team of 29 researchers recently published the results from the first global survey on the use of sea-level rise projections by coastal practitioners in Communications Earth & Environment. The study found that while the recognition of the threat of sea-level rise was almost universal, only 72 percent of respondents currently utilize projections in their planning.

The study generally highlighted that developing countries have lower levels of utilization of the latest science and projections. When it comes to the structure of the scenario used by planners, 53 percent of respondents utilize a single projection, while the remainder use multiple projections. (Only 13 percent are considering unlikely high-end scenarios.)

“What this survey really shows us is that there is an uneven use and application of sea-level rise science in coastal planning, with no global standard for how such projections might be best used,” notes Dr. Daniella Hirschfeld, co-lead author of the study and associate professor of environmental planning and climate adaptation at Utah State University. “Connecting experts on climate science and adaptation with the broader coastal planning community is becoming increasingly more critical, especially for those countries likely to be most affected by sea-level rise in the future.”

David Behar, co-lead author of the study and climate program director for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, states that “there is a real need for civil society to educate and inform policymakers over the uncertainties of sea-level rise projections, pushing for a multitude of scenarios to be given serious consideration by adaptation practitioners and local governments.”

The nexus between coastal adaptation in the developing world and how wealthier nations can assist sustainable pathways for development and resilience is a matter of increasing debate, especially as it concerns the role of multilateral financial institutions, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

“There is indeed an effort to bridge science and data with public policy,” observes Kwasi Appeaning Addo, director of the Institute for Environment and Sanitation Studies at the University of Ghana, and a researcher for the study. “But in Ghana’s case, sea-level rise has been difficult for policymakers and planners to address effectively.”

Addo also noted that “Ghana has already lost some 37 percent of its coastal land in Fuvemeh due to erosion and flooding between 2005 and 2017, and what is occurring in West Africa is no different than the challenges that countries in Latin America or South Asia could face now and in the coming decades. The developing world is in dire need of assistance, technical training, and new data.”

The Developing World Responds: The Bridgetown Initiative

Mia Mottley, the Prime Minister of Barbados, announced the Bridgetown Initiative last year. This effort aims to address the climate crisis from the perspective of vulnerable nations that face a confluence of looming climate-related disasters. The proposed initiative would offer reforms to development finance, including increased lending capacity of $1 trillion from multilateral development banks in support of climate resilience.

With the spring meetings underway in Washington at both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, it is likely that the Bridgetown Initiative could weigh heavily on discussions of how multilateral development banks intend to finance global adaptation.

There is good reason for the Bridgetown Initiative to be high on the agenda. In its annual threat assessment, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence specifically cited rising tensions over climate financing as “high-and-middle income countries still have not met their 2015 Paris Agreement pledges to provide $100 billion per year to low-income countries by 2020.”

The fact of the matter is that many environmental advocates are shaming the developed world into action. As international marine conservationist and Wilson Center Global Fellow, Maximiliano Bello observes: “Developing nations, such as my native Chile, which has done relatively little to influence the Earth’s greenhouse effect, will be inundated by rising seas in the future. Our 4,000 miles of coastline are incredibly important economically, culturally, and in terms of climate adaptation, of vital national interest.”

Bello adds that the global community “must find solutions to the present crisis, by phasing-out fossil fuels and beginning the hard work of conserving large swaths of land and ocean, at least 30 percent of our planet, by the end of this decade.”

Indeed, the world’s oceans represent a harbinger of how the planet could transform with drastic results in the future. The increasing likelihood of moderate to extreme sea-level rise requires urgent planning and contingencies that address, above all else, the human dimensions of climate change and our ability to adapt in a rapidly warming world.