Climate impacts are growing more frequent and severe as global temperatures rise. Weather-related disasters have seen a five-fold increase over the past half-century. In many cases, these calamities are already testing the adaptation capabilities of vulnerable communities across the world. If emissions follow the trajectory set by current country targets, the chance of temporarily overshooting the 1.5 °C target in the next five years is 48 percent.

This failure would have implications for the global economy and international security. Yet despite the fact that climate change shapes geopolitics, climate risk itself has rarely been featured in international geopolitics and diplomacy.

Scientific understanding of climate risk has advanced, including the means to foresee the growing risk of breaching irreversible tipping points like the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets or breakdown of the Gulf Stream. While the impacts of these and other sorts of climate catastrophes cannot be measured in economic terms alone (or perhaps at all), they would unquestionably have dire consequences for human society and international security. 

The tipping points may be closer than we imagine. A new report from E3G Living on the Edge: How Climate Tipping Points will Reshape Geopolitics shows that the world is much closer to breaching climate tipping points in critical Earth systems than previously thought. The consequences are so severe that better understanding this new era of extreme risk will have far-reaching implications for global cooperation on technology, finance, food, energy and migration. 

While Living on the Edge is founded on our improved understanding of climate tipping points and a new age of extreme risk may reshape geopolitical dynamics, the report also suggests all of the effects of such a shift are not clear.

Increased climate risk could prompt a renewed push for international cooperation and deeper economic integration of clean energy markets and standards, and lead to significantly scaled up international finance for adaptation and loss and damage for vulnerable countries.

On the other hand, it could lead to geopolitical fragmentation where countries choose to “go it alone,” perhaps by unilaterally deploying untested geoengineering technologies to alter the climate.

Identifying Geopolitical Drivers

Extreme climate risk will trigger multiple responses from different sectors. Living on the Edge assesses five potential drivers of geopolitics.

Technology: One response to tipping point risk is the possible use of geoengineering solutions— such as solar radiation management, which cools the planet by reflecting sunlight back into the atmosphere – or technologies that remove carbon dioxide from the air. Yet these technologies are untested and carry the risk of unintended consequences that could be unevenly distributed geographically. Climate models suggest that some level of carbon removal will be necessary to maintain a safe temperature—but the lack of appropriate governance mechanisms will impede their success.  

Climate Finance: Most international climate finance is spent on mitigation measures. For every $4 of international climate finance to developing countries, only $1 goes to adaptation. No money is currently provided specifically to address losses and damages. International negotiations over finance for climate adaptation and loss and damage are already contentious— and will become more urgent as the risks increase.   

Food Security: Agricultural productivity is already threatened by rising temperatures in many parts of the world. The risk of multiple breadbasket failures occurring in a single year is increasing. If countries become more concerned about extreme temperature scenarios and cascading risks from tipping points, food export bans like those seen in 2010 following a major drought might ensue. These kinds of resource shocks can contribute to political and social instability.  

Energy Security: The transition to renewable energy, including the growing demand for rare-earth elements or bioenergy, will change the current balance of powers. Crash mitigation programs launched to avoid tipping points or extreme temperature scenarios would speed this transition up significantly. However, some medium and large fossil exporters will be left unprepared, and early investors in batteries and other clean technologies will be given new levers of influence.

Migration: As climate impacts intensify, migration flows will change. Large movements of people can raise challenges in sovereignty, responsibility to host refugees, social pressure, and possibly conflict. This is likely to take place both internally and across borders. Sea level rise has already overtaken eight Pacific islands, forcing their habitants to migrate, and two more islands will soon disappear. Unexpectedly rapid melting of the ice sheets would speed up sea level rise, exacerbating this challenge. Migration is also an example of a potential “social” tipping point, where community perceptions drive decision making as well as climate impacts themselves.

Still Time to Act

Neither governments nor international institutions are currently prepared for a dramatic change in the urgency of managing climate risk, or the wider consequences that could result from such a shift. Living on the Edge also points to actions that can be taken to help avoid future geopolitical tensions and increase global resilience.

In terms of data and risk assessment, the IPCC could develop a Special Report on tipping points, and the UN could create a global Climate Risk Observatory, which would contribute to the goal of having early warning systems for everyone on earth by 2027.

Governments and financial institutions should integrate climate risk management into their planning and decision making, including consideration of multiple temperature scenarios and long-tail risks. Developed countries need to scale up international commitments and provide finance for addressing losses and damages in addition to funding for mitigation and adaptation.

Finally, in an era of polycrises, dialogue and cooperation between major emitters and vulnerable countries are essential—not only to discuss extreme risk, but also their impacts and potential use of geoengineering and carbon removal technologies.

Living on the Edge lays out the fact that the world and its governing institutions are not yet ready for climate tipping points. But a better understanding of the science and the drivers of a new age of extreme climate risk may point to ways to better navigate the looming calamities.