The summer of 2022 has been a season of climatic extremes across the globe, including record-breaking heatwaves and droughts in both the United States and Europe. But even these unprecedented extreme weather events pale in comparison with China’s heatwave from hell. For more than two months, a huge swath of the world’s most populous nation has been baking under temperatures of up to 113 degrees Fahrenheit. According to state media, this extreme heatwave affects an area of over 500,000 square miles, equivalent to more than twice the size of Texas. In terms of duration, intensity, and area affected, it is almost certainly the most severe heatwave ever recorded anywhere in the world.

China’s sky-high mercury is not just a bad sign for the planet. It also shows that climate change has become one of the biggest risks to the world’s second-biggest economy, with ripple effects that extend far beyond its borders. But instead of acting faster to slash emissions, Beijing has instead suspended climate cooperation with Washington and ramped up coal production. China’s extreme weather emergency underscores the urgency of climate action – and also shows that more attention needs to be given to how to adapt to the climate risks the world is already facing.

China’s growing climate risk factor

When it comes to climate change, China is perhaps best known as the world’s largest emitter. But an equally important fact is that of the world’s big economies, China may well be the most exposed to climate-related risks including flooding, drought, and extreme heat. Many of its biggest cities, like Shanghai and Guangzhou, sit in low-lying areas that are exceptionally vulnerable to flooding, and China as a whole is experiencing warming that is higher than the global average. A 2021 World Bank report found that “Even in proportion to its large size and economy, China’s vulnerability to climatic hazards is high.” Reckless development has exacerbated the vulnerability, especially in floodplains and other marginal landscapes.

Thanks to this summer’s heatwave, the economic impact of these hazards has become very real. The surge in temperatures prompted a spike in demand for electricity, largely for air conditioning. The resulting strain on power grids was so severe that several provinces have shut down factories in an effort to save energy. These shutdowns have come at an enormous cost to an economy already battered by Covid-related lockdowns. Heatwave-related power shortages alone prompted Goldman Sachs to slash its growth forecast for China’s economy by almost 10 percent.

Even worse, these economic costs will be global. Factory closures in southwestern China will severely affect global supply chains in key industries like electric vehicles and consumer electronics. Extreme heat has also caused Chinese authorities to slash their forecasts for agricultural production, likely putting additional pressure on global food prices. If China ends up importing more food from abroad, it will almost surely exacerbate a global food security crisis prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

Rebounding emissions 

Beijing is not blind to these dire implications. For years Chinese leaders have cited climate risks as a major driver of the country’s climate policy, including its commitment to cut carbon dioxide emissions to zero on a net basis by 2060. But instead of pushing it to act even more aggressively to reduce emissions, China’s latest bout of extreme weather is instead threatening decarbonization goals. High temperatures have been accompanied by extreme drought, forcing authorities to slash hydropower generation – China’s biggest source of low-carbon energy. To make up the difference, coal plants have ramped up production, canceling out the benefits of relying on hydropower.  

A potentially even bigger threat to global action on climate change is Beijing’s decision to suspend cooperation with the United States on climate change in retaliation for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. As many observers have pointed out, bilateral cooperation doesn’t necessarily directly affect emissions, and arguably both countries have made progress on clean energy despite growing tensions. But even so, the United States and China, as the world’s two largest emitters, are critical to further progress toward meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit global temperature increases to below 2 degrees Celsius. Unless Beijing changes course, it is hard to see how the next round of international climate talks scheduled to begin in November can succeed.

Ripple effect of China’s climate risk

China’s growing climate risk has two major implications for the rest of the world. First, the extent to which a huge portion of the world’s manufacturing capacity is centered in parts of China heavily exposed to climate risk strengthens the case for supply chain diversification. This is especially important for companies like Apple who source critical components almost exclusively from East Asia. Diversification will be an expensive, and complicated, proposition, especially as climate risk continues to increase in other parts of the world. But it will nonetheless likely accelerate the shift in global supply chains away from China-centric models.  

Second, the world must place more emphasis on adaptation to climate change. The focus of cooperation with China on climate change has understandably focused primarily on reducing emissions. But China’s extreme heatwave shows that both it and the world will be dealing with the impact of climate change for decades to come. In particular, China, the United States, and other countries need to put much more emphasis on dealing with extreme heat, along with the drought that typically accompanies it. Some approaches, like cloud seeding, show promise to help lower temperatures as well as encourage rainfall – but can also pose risks that warrant more international collaborative research to better understand. 

Moreover, engaging Beijing equally on adapting and mitigating climate change, holds the best hope for restoring international cooperation and coaxing China’s leaders to accelerate climate action. Indeed, adaptation is a focus of this year’s United Nations-sponsored climate talks in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt. World leaders, including in Washington, should not pass up the opportunity to talk adaptation with their Chinese counterparts.      

China’s heatwave from hell is a warning for the entire planet: to act now to contain the economic and ecological costs of climate change before they surge along with the mercury.