Why does climate change lead to especially bad security outcomes in some places but not others? In this week’s New Security Broadcast, Josh Busby, Associate Professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas-Austin, discusses the latest thinking on this essential question as laid out in his new book, States and Nature: The Effects of Climate Change on Security, with ECSP Program Associate, Amanda King, and ECSP Senior Fellow, Sherri Goodman.

In States and Nature, Busby examines intriguing case studies that demonstrate that—when it comes to climate insecurity—proximity is not destiny. Drought-driven famine devastated Somalia, but led to less dire outcomes in neighboring Ethiopia. Another drought that sparked civil war in Syria resulted in less overt conflict next door in Lebanon. He argues that a combination of state capacity, political exclusion, and international assistance explains why some nations suffer particularly acute negative security outcomes and not others.

“Whether or not states have the capability to deliver services,” observes Busby, “is an important piece of whether or not governments are able to deliver services in the lead-up to exposure to climate threats—and are able to respond in their wake.

Political representation—and the lack of it—also matter to a nation’s climate resilience. Busby observes that this is especially true when favored groups within a given society receive more aid when the entire nation is exposed to climate hazards. He says his research reveals that “inclusive political societies—those that try to include all social groups in representation in government—typically end up with more just outcomes.”

Busby recently had an opportunity to merge theory and practice when he took a leave of absence from UT Austin to serve as a Climate Advisor in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) in 2021 and 2022. He believes that the experience will shape his research going forward. “When you’re in academia,” says Busby, “you don’t really have an appreciation for the levers and tools that governments have—and don’t have—to be able to try to shape and influence outcomes.”

What scholars bring to the discussion is essential, Busby adds. Between managing budgets and navigating a bureaucracy of confusing acronyms across the U.S. government, researchers possess an expertise rooted in their understanding of the rich and developing literature on the connections between the cause and effect of climate and insecurity. Yet, translating good ideas into policy and programs can be a challenge. “If you want to be a change agent, to make the world better,” he says, “you have to invest some time and understanding into what those instruments and levers are.” 

Busby’s extensive research and recent experience at the DoD has convinced him that most of the instruments to deal with climate security impacts will be civilian instruments and levers. Citizens, and not the military, will be the first line of defense for affected nations.

Governments of countries that are affected by climate impacts must respond, of course. But Busby says that their efforts will be more effective if they are backstopped by international assistance that “first and foremost is going to be development and diplomatic resources.”

Given his recent stint at DoD, however, Busby does see a critical role for militaries to play in navigating climate security issues, especially via military-to-military cooperation or disaster risk reduction. Such activities will come in to play particularly when civilian capacities may be limited and where militaries are needed to respond to extreme weather events and other climate-related emergencies. Yet he insists that there is a need to invest more fully in instruments and power structures separate from national defense, if only “to ensure that it doesn’t become the responsibility of the military to do this work.”

Goodman and Busby share an interest—and a track record—of marrying academia and public service. They agree that it is no easy feat to navigate ways to make a difference through a career in public service and also work in the climate space with students and young professionals.

Reflecting on her own illustrious career in public service, Goodman advises those who would follow in her footsteps and seek the rewards of that path to surround themselves—and focus on working with people who have a shared vision and sense of purpose. “Change can occur,” she says. “We have to be in it together as a collective.”

As Busby returns to the classroom, he says he wants to ensure his students are not dismayed by the challenges of the field. “It’s a hard space to work in and sustain one’s optimism about the future,” he observes. ”But…we have to work and continue to have a sense of duty and obligation even if the problems are hard.”