Truth, trust, and transparency are key aspects to sound and sustainable governance of the Arctic, said Ulf Sverdrup, Director of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. He was one of a panel of experts who spoke on Nov. 30 at “The Arctic in a Post-Election World,” the first event in a two-part series sponsored by the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute.

Climate Change

While President-elect Biden has shared little about his plan for the Arctic, the panelists agreed that a Biden presidency will likely place a renewed emphasis on diplomacy and cooperation on Arctic issues. “Incoming president, President-elect Biden, has already announced that the United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement and presumably will once again become one of the leaders in supporting efforts to combat climate change at the international level,” said Ambassador David Balton, Senior Fellow with the Wilson Center’s Polar Institute and former Ambassador for Oceans and Fisheries at the U.S. State Department. “I would expect to see the United States pushing for steps to be taken in the Arctic,” he said, “to address problems of climate change, you know, more aggressively than in the last four years.”

A renewed focus on climate will affect U.S. policy on sustainable development in the Arctic, including economic activities like drilling and mining as well as climate-friendly investments such as green energy, said Marie-Anne Coninsx, former Ambassador for the European Union. The United States is also likely to place greater emphasis on environmental protection and sustainable development. The new U.S. administration’s most important contribution in the Arctic will be the reduction of climate emissions through investments in research and innovative new technologies, even if it doesn’t mention the Arctic, said Sverdrup. He noted that Biden has already appointed former Secretary of State John Kerry—who spent many years of his life protecting oceans and working on ocean governance—to a new position, Special Presidential Envoy for Climate.

Great Power Competition

The Biden administration will likely follow in the footsteps of the Trump administration and continue to discourage Russian militarization of the Arctic, said Balton. Arctic security is very much a byproduct of tensions elsewhere, said Sverdrup. Great power competition has the possibility of moving into the region; what happens in the Ukraine could spill into the Arctic, or rivalry with China could unfold in the Arctic.

There may be an increase of security tensions as both the United States and Russia continue to conduct military exercises in the High North, utilize aggressive rhetoric, and accuse each other of Arctic militarization, said Andrey Todorov, Research Fellow at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations. The United States will continue to make an effort to closely align with Arctic allies to prevent this type of Russian behavior and reestablish a security equilibrium, said Balton.

Balton also noted the growing Chinese ambitions in the Arctic. “At least vis-à-vis interests in the Arctic, the Biden administration may not view Chinese engagement in the Arctic in quite the same way as the outgoing Trump administration,” said Balton. It is possible that the “tone and temperature” toward China will change, and the Biden administration may become less aggressive in pushing back against China.

Multilateralism and International Cooperation

Panelists expressed strong excitement about opportunities for international engagement after four years of increasing U.S. isolationism. The United States will promote efforts to strengthen the international governance regime for the Arctic and strengthen ties with allies and partners in the Arctic, said Balton, noting that there is still much work to be done. “Ties have, frankly, gotten somewhat frayed in the last four years,” he said. “That’s what I think will change.” 

Balton is optimistic about the United States’ becoming less isolationist. “I think that the United States will, both in the Arctic and elsewhere, place more emphasis on working through multilateral institutions and regimes like the Arctic Council,” said Balton. A commitment to multilateralism and a willingness to cooperate with other states on tackling global changes will bring the United States closer to the other Arctic nations, said Todorov.

Russia would benefit from this reengaged approach and willingness to cooperate, he said, especially with Russia assuming the chairmanship of the Arctic Council in 2021. Progress on Arctic relations, especially with the Arctic Council under a Russian chairmanship, could become more ambitious with U.S. cooperation under the Biden administration, said Heather Exner-Pirot, Managing Editor of the Arctic Yearbook. The question remains whether Biden will compartmentalize issues and collaborate on some pressing areas while not compromising on others, said Balton.

Confidence-building Measures

The highly polarized nature of the 2020 election has made Europe and Canada more concerned about U.S. foreign policy in the longer term, said Sverdrup and Exner-Pirot. However, panelists differed on what confidence-building measures should entail.

The United States needs to get its own house in order first, said Exner-Pirot. The problem is that a radical shift in foreign policy could happen again with the next presidential election. The Biden administration can formulate as many confidence-building measures as it wants in its four-year term. “But everyone is thinking about 2024 and 2028,” she said. “So what do you need to do in your own house to build confidence that there can be consistency in your foreign policy?”

Other panelists gestured toward a more traditional definition of confidence-building. For U.S. allies, these measures will not be as important on the security side as they are related to trust in science and institutions, said Sverdrup. Because there will be more military activity in the Arctic, confidence building among Arctic nations should involve establishing clear and transparent rules of engagement, information systems for managing military exercises, how to avoid incidents, and procedures on what to do if accidents occur.

Confidence-building measures in the Arctic need to be shared visions of what we should do next in the future, said Todorov, noting how Biden’s vision for climate change cooperation brings the United States closer to other Arctic nations. Only then can the future of the Arctic be shaped equitably for all.

Read More:

• Competing interests in the Arctic create heightened tensions over governance, security, and policy.
• U.S.-Russian Arctic climate cooperation is a key part of ensuring the safety and sustainability of the region for states and indigenous peoples alike.
• The international polar expedition, MOSAiC, recently completed its data collection on Arctic climate systems.