Weeks before most of the world began to take the spread of COVID-19 seriously, Africa was already threatened by another plague, the biggest locust outbreak in the last 70 years. Locusts swarmed into Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, and South Sudan in January and February this year. Those hordes of voracious locusts laid eggs, and now the second wave, 20 times the size of the first group, is arriving. According to Locust Watch, “The current situation in East Africa remains extremely alarming as more swarms form and mature in northern and central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and probably in Somalia.”

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) estimated that the desert locust impacts the livelihood of 1 in 10 people on the planet, making it the most dangerous migratory pest in the world. Widespread rains in late March allowed the new swarms to stay in place, mature, and lay eggs, reported Locust Watch. The eggs will hatch into hopper bands that form new swarms in late June and July, coinciding with the start of the harvest season. Swarms of locusts can be huge, containing up to 10 billion individuals and stretch over hundreds of kilometers. Such swarms can fly up to 200 km (120 miles) in a day, devastating rural livelihoods with their relentless drive to chomp their way through any vegetation and crops in their path and reproduce.

Compromised Food Security

Locusts are ravenous. An adult locust can devour its weight in food each day. Since a locust swarm of one square kilometer can eat the same amount of food in a day as 35,000 people, the potential for destruction is enormous as the second wave arrives.

Locust outbreaks in East Africa put millions of vulnerable people at risk. The locust crisis will likely lead to a drop in agricultural production, further threatening food supplies in a region where 11.9 million people already suffer from food insecurity. Communities in Kenya are concerned that a final generation of locusts, after the end of the rainy season, will destroy the rangeland, leaving cattle, donkeys, goats, and camels to starve to death.

The impact of desert locusts on food security could be the most devastating in countries that rely heavily on agriculture. For instance, 75 percent of the population in Kenya earns income from agriculture, which generates one-third of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Similarly, agriculture accounts for 40 percent of the GDP, 80 percent of exports, and 75 percent of the workforce in Ethiopia. In such countries, the second wave of locusts is likely to harm both the economy and food security. The second wave of locusts, FAO warns, could endanger the food security of approximately 25 million people in East Africa.

Compounding Crises

Locust outbreaks happen intermittently, usually once every couple of decades, but this is the worst outbreak East Africa has witnessed since the late 1980s. Scientists have attributed the size of this outbreak to the climate changes in the region linked to the Indian Ocean Dipole, a phenomenon that caused extreme drought in Australia and torrential rain in East Africa.

Under normal circumstances,  desert locusts are usually restricted to the semi-arid and arid deserts of Africa. Locust numbers decrease via natural deaths or through migration. The additional moisture this year has created exceptional breeding conditions for desert locusts. The seasonal rainfall in March and May, while essential to timely land preparation and harvest, also created conditions conducive to desert locust breeding and development. Heat waves, tropical cyclones, and intense rains can lead to more unpredicted locust swarms, making it more difficult to prevent future outbreaks.

Africa has also been experiencing higher temperatures than usual due to climate change. Studies show that a hotter climate leads to more damaging locust swarms. This puts Africa at a greater risk of locusts as 20 of the fastest warming countries are located in that region.

As the coronavirus halts many activities, East Africa is facing a dual challenge. With more than 42,500 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Africa as of May 6, the continent struggles with health and economic challenges associated with the virus. And related travel restrictions and lockdowns are making it harder to fight the plague of locusts.

What Can Be Done?

Aerial spraying is the only effective way to control the locust outbreak. However, countries in East Africa face difficulties in fighting the infestation as coronavirus travel restrictions slow cross-border movement and delay the delivery of pesticides and helicopters. While the second wave of the locust outbreak is likely to destroy many farms, East African countries have focused their attention and resources on confronting the deadly COVID-19.

FAO is working with governments and partners to support operations to fight the outbreak and initiating efforts to safeguard livelihoods and guide people through the long-term impacts of this crisis. For example, FAO and donors have funded and countries have stockpiled some 720,000 tons of cereal—enough to feed 5 million people—across nine countries in the Greater Horn of Africa plus Yemen. However, FAO needs $70 million to support control operations and measures to protect livelihoods and avoid a food security disaster.

Researchers in the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s climate prediction and applications center, based in Nairobi, are using a supercomputer model to predict breeding areas that could become sources of new swarms if not sprayed. So far, the model has achieved 90 percent accuracy in forecasting the future locations of the swarms using data such as wind speed, humidity, and temperature. This will help African governments to direct their spraying efforts and control hoppers before they swarm.

In addition, NASA scientists are using satellites to monitor soil moisture and vegetation from space to learn how environmental changes affect locusts and use the information to prevent future outbreaks.

Due to the current pandemic and economic standstill, the World Health Organization has projected a 5 percent drop in Africa’s GDP. As many as 20 million jobs will be lost, according to United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The locust outbreak in East Africa is likely to exacerbate this economic crisis as farmers lose their harvest and the food crisis grows in the region. If governments and the international community do not take the necessary steps to fight this plague of locusts, future waves will make survival all the more difficult and lead to countless deaths.