Pakistan ranks eighth on the list of countries most affected by extreme weather events (1998–2017 data), according to the 2019 Global Risk Index. With increasing global temperatures, severe weather and water events, like monsoons and droughts, are likely to become even more frequent and extreme in the future. Since the 1960s, Pakistan has observed changes in temperature and precipitation. By the end of the century, Pakistan’s temperatures are expected to be significantly higher than the global average.

To add to the alarming temperature trends, Pakistan’s main in-country source of surface and groundwater, The Indus River, is increasingly being depleted. As one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, Pakistan faces a water crisis that contributes to its instability.

The three main direct and indirect critical tipping points for security in Pakistan—water scarcity, floods, and droughts; boundary disputes, and domestic insurgency—will only be exacerbated by future disruptive weather and water events.

Ecosystem Vulnerabilities: Floods and Droughts

As Pakistan’s annual monsoon season comes to a close, the tallies of damage have begun to seep in. In 2019’s monsoon season, Pakistan’s four provinces, its capital, Islamabad, and its federally administered tribal areas (FATA) experienced loss of life, infrastructure damage, and displacement after being inundated by these heavy rains and resulting landslides.

Pakistan has historically been affected by severe floods and droughts. There have been 67 reported flooding events since 1900, with a cluster of 52 over the last 30 to 40 years. Floods and droughts that occurred during these years have been associated with major loss of life and property. In the worst year, 2010, unprecedented floods in Pakistan resulted in a death toll close to 2,000, affected more than 20 million people, and cost more than $40 billion (USD) in damage.

Pakistan has experienced ongoing drought conditions since 2014. Droughts in Pakistan have also been more severe over the last few decades, with the drought from 1998–2002 considered the worst over the past 50 years. Additionally, a pattern of severe droughts followed by severe flooding has emerged. For example, a 2009–2010 weak drought ended with the catastrophic 2010 floods. 

Pakistan’s agricultural and water policies exacerbate the impact of these extreme weather events. The state subsidizes flood irrigation, the most inefficient water use for agriculture and water-heavy crops, like sugar and wheat. The water inefficiencies in agriculture are particularly concerning given that agriculture consumes the vast majority of Pakistan’s water resources. In effect, Pakistan uses more than 90 percent of its allocated water resources to support one of the least productive agriculture systems in the world per unit of water.

Because Pakistan’s economy relies heavily on agriculture, extreme drought and flooding causes high levels of displacement and economic damage. Vested interests and power dynamics complicate efforts to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Rural Sindh is often described as a feudal economy. With deep political connections, wealthy landowners who represent less than 1 percent of the people in Sindh province but own more than five acres of land have successfully prevented water policy reform. In Pakistan as a whole, 2 percent of households own nearly 50 percent of land, while 5 percent of agricultural households own nearly two thirds of Pakistan’s farmland.

Furthermore, Pakistan’s water infrastructure is fraught with challenges. The Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), which the Indus Waters Treaty created, is the largest continuous irrigation system in the world. However, canals are leaky, and dams are rapidly losing storage space. Pakistan’s total dam storage could meet only 30 days of average demand. The inability to transport and store water adds to Pakistan’s shortages, scarcity, and droughts.

An under-appreciated threat is exacerbating the country’s ability to weather water-related extremes. Pakistan has the highest annual rate of deforestation in Asia, with forest cover reduced by 33 percent in 20 years. It loses 3 acres of land every 20 minutes to high rates of erosion. These high rates of deforestation contribute to increased surface runoff, flooding, and risks of landslides.

However, Pakistan does show glimmers of hope on this issue. Just last year, after achieving his Billion Tree Tsunami, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan announced a “10 Billion Tree Tsunami” as part of his “Plant for Pakistan” campaign to combat deforestation and desertification in the country. The country holds the world record for the most trees planted in 24 hours. Recently, Pakistan’s civil society petitioned Pakistan’s Lahore High Court to combat deforestation. The Court’s verdict ordered the Punjab government, Defence Housing Authority, and other development agencies to create a plan to increase forest cover.

Transnational Trends: Boundary Disputes

Since its signing in 1960, The Indus Waters Treaty, a water-distribution treaty between Pakistan and India, has become a symbol of coordination through shared water resources. However, a changing climate will pose challenges to the treaty and could exacerbate pre-existing tensions with India. The treaty does not account for variability in river flow, and on multiple occasions, India has threatened to withdraw from the treaty.

Earlier this year, after a suicide attack by a Pakistan-based terrorist group killed more than 40 Indian paramilitary police officers in Kashmir, India threatened to cut off Pakistan’s water supply. In August 2019, India released water without warning causing high-levels of flooding in the Sutlej River, an Indus River tributary. The unannounced release of water combined with the remnants of heavy rains caused the river to peak at 150,000 cusecs and flood 19 villages, spurring rescue and relief response. 

Pakistan has harbored and aided terrorists that it has later used to push back against its rival, India. In 2017, the U.S. State Department labeled Pakistan a “terrorist safe haven” where terrorists are able to operate in a relatively secure manner. For example, the terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, has a history of incorporating Indian water theft narratives into its propaganda. The group has spread conspiracy theories about U.S. manipulation of weather in Pakistan to benefit India and often blames India for Pakistan’s water issues.

These disputes aren’t just transboundary. Other conflicts related to water disputes in the country include grievances between the Punjab and Sindh provinces, where rising water scarcity could lead to further instability; and the longstanding separatist insurgency in Balochistan driven by grievances of inequitable exploitation of natural resources, could be exacerbated by water insecurity and stall part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Political Instability: Domestic Insurgency

The increasing separatist movement in Balochistan heavily impacts China’s vested interest in developing in Balochistan. The CPEC could further deplete and threaten Pakistan’s water supply and exacerbate existing grievances separatists harbor. The project as a whole is expected to use a large amount of water and compete with water-intensive industries in an already-water-strained country and province.

Another major factor behind Pakistan’s domestic instability is its poor emergency response capabilities and the large loss of life incurred after natural disasters. The authorities’ slow response times to the floods of 2010 and the 2014 drought in Sindh contributed to high death tolls.

Improving Predictive Capabilities

In partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, the Wilson Center is developing a framework to improve predictive capabilities for security risks posed by extreme weather and water events. This project is a response to findings that show that Earth System prediction to support national security decision makers and in-country partnerships is insufficiently tailored to meet real needs.

For Pakistan, it will take improved water and irrigation policies, accounting for climate variability in the Indus Waters Treaty, continued reforestation efforts, a focus on dismantling domestic insurgency, and more to improve its ability to predict disruptive weather and water events.

To support and identify national security vulnerabilities in Pakistan, partnerships and communication involving foresight and predictive analysis tools, hosted by the earth system science community, are crucial. These tools could help Pakistan enhance earth system predictive capability and inform its disaster and risk preparedness and response.