While the U.S. has been fixated on President Trump’s contentious border wall project, another more ominous threat facing Guatemalans is building internally. In a swift reversal, many politicians and scholars who have previously argued for directing increased U.S. aid to communities in Central America’s Northern Triangle—Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras—as a humanitarian alternative to the border wall, are now calling on Congress to suspend some forms of aid to Guatemala, which they now see as the more humane option.

This decision to substantially reduce foreign aid could have disastrous consequences, deepening poverty and insecurity, as well as creating further incentives for out migration. Some argue, however, that cutting off aid is the only way to neutralize a rising internal crisis driven by President Jimmy Morales.

Morales, Guatemala’s president since 2015, was elected for his good humor (he was formerly an actor and comedian) and anti-corruption stance, a platform that appealed to voters following the scandals of his predecessor, Otto Perez Molina. Molina, who served from 2012 to 2015, resigned before the end of his term and was imprisoned along with his vice president for involvement in a racketeering scheme. Their prosecution was the result of mounting public pressure and the investigative work of an international body established by the United Nations. The corruption investigatory body, called the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG for its Spanish name), has had a presence in the country since 2006.

Impunity on the Rise

This historic and largely unprecedented prosecution of corruption has been hailed as an opening for democracy in one of the America’s most fragile countries. Some see it as proof that change can happen anywhere. Less than four years after Molina’s resignation, however, Morales terminated the country’s agreement with the UN, stripping CICIG of its authority to continue its work, which was increasingly focused on him and his family. In spite of mounting protests and international pressure, Morales has not changed course, leaving many to liken his actions to a slow moving coup.

With CICIG emasculated, impunity is again on the rise and environmental activists are caught in the crosshairs. Amidst popular protests calling for his resignation, Morales made comments in a press conference defending himself and threatening civil society. Many are concerned that his statements, as well as the termination of CICIG, are creating a toxic combination, criminalizing human rights defenders and immunizing their aggressors.

Deadly Repression of Populist Movements

At least 26 human rights and environmental defenders were killed in 2018. In just one month (June), seven individuals were assassinated. All were active participants in an organization called CODECA (Campesino Development Committee), an organization of campesinos, or people who live in rural areas, work small plots of land and largely operate outside of the formal market system. Many of those killed were actively engaged in conflicts over land, driven by metal mining and fossil fuel companies. While these conflicts occur in many other countries in Central America, they are disproportionately concentrated in Guatemala. Results from a study funded by the United National Development Program (UNDP) highlight that roughly one-third of recent environmental conflicts in Central America took place in Guatemala. The leading cause of conflict was due to mining activity. And the tensions are exacerbated by the lack of rigorous environmental legislation, according to researchers. “This generates social protest and discontent over the way in which extractive industry activities develop in Guatemala,” the researchers concluded.

Many indigenous and non-indigenous campesinos disapprove of the way that extractive industries are allowed to advance without consent from and without benefit to local communities. These conflicts are deeply embedded in unequal patterns of economic benefits and racial inequalities in Guatemala and cannot be separated from the country’s 36-year armed conflict which ended in the 1990s. Following the end of the conflict and the 1996 peace accords, policies pivoted to focus on achieving national prosperity through deregulation, market integration, privatization, and resource extraction. Instead of the broad prosperity that was promised, these policies have exacerbated poverty and inequality and have exposed rural lives to new forms of violence and harm.

While deeply historical, the increasingly deadly nature of environmental conflicts must also be understood in the context of current events. There are several reasons to believe that Morales’ authoritarian and extra-legal regime has created the conditions for this violence. Juana Raymundo, a 25-year-old indigenous (Mayan Ixil) nurse and member of CODECA was killed on May 2018, just days after Morales gave a speech, calling out CODECA by name and labeling it a criminal organization. Some have argued that Juana’s death, and many others like hers, have been a direct consequence of Morales’ incendiary remarks combined with the culture of illegality and impunity he has perpetuated.

Threats Authoritarian Regimes Face

One study in particular helps to explain the connection between authoritarianism and deadly repression within socioenvironmental conflicts. Based on an examination of conflicts in neighboring Honduras, the study finds that deadly repression is more likely when authoritarian regimes are challenged by movements with broad popular appeal. Confrontations of this nature not only constitute a threat to individual extractivist projects, they also defy the established political order. Further, a deadly repression is more likely in the context of historical marginalization of indigenous and agrarian communities “and recent reversals in partial democratization processes taking place within a broader context of high homicidal violence and impunity rates.”

This statement aptly defines this political moment in Guatemala. In recent years, popular environmental movements have shown unprecedented unifying potential. In 2014, an estimated 20,000 protestors shut down the Pan-American Highway, successfully repealing a law that would have allowed large agri-business to gain more control in the private seed industry. Just two years later, a surprisingly diverse group of protestors took another highly visible stand against the privatization of water. Importantly, both of these political conflicts bracketed the 2015 resignation of former president Otto Perez Molina—demonstrating how eco-populism can potentially strengthen political engagement.

To Support Democracy, Back Human Rights and Environmental Defenders

Guatemala’s democracy is both experiencing a renaissance and is under assault. The United States needs to clearly align itself with those who are fighting to advance democracy, protect the environment, and stand for human rights. One who has taken a stand for democracy is House Rep. Norma Torres (D-CA), who introduced a bill to impose sanctions on those who have undermined the rule of law in Guatemala and to withhold assistance to the Guatemalan government with the exception of humanitarian assistance or assistance to combat corruption. “Standing with Guatemala’s corruption fighters is not just a question of principles,” said Torres. “It’s also one of self-interest.” Insecurity, violence, deepening poverty, and environmental degradation all hang in the balance. It is this very combination of forces that has driven recent migrations to the United States. Congressional action could prevent a future wave of refugees from having to flee their homes in the first place.