A threat looms on the sun-splashed horizon of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The specter of climate change wraps its fingers around the islands, raising sea levels, salinizing soils, and sapping freshwater resources. These changes will make it even harder to sustain crops, which could push the population to even greater reliance on  processed foods, which has already spurred a diabetes epidemic on the islands. The major role played by the United States in the history of the Marshalls, where nuclear bombs were famously tested during the Cold War, may continue, as the impacts of another existential threat—climate change—continue to increase.

From 1946 until 1958, the Marshalls were used as nuclear bomb testing grounds during the Cold War. Whole islands were evacuated, such as the Bikini Atoll. Others were completely blown up, like Elugelab.  To this day, radiation contamination caused by the fallout from the nuclear weapons continues to plague the islands. Under a 1983 agreement between the Marshallese government and the United States called the “Compact of Free Association,” the population of the islands are allowed to move to the United States to live and work without a visa. By 2000, around 7,000 Marshallese had settled in the United States; by 2010, according to census data, that number had risen to around 22,000. Marshallese continue to settle largely in the states of Hawaiʻi, Arkansas, and Washington state to pursue economic and educational opportunities and to seek medical care. But as the specter of climate change rises, so, too, may migration from these islands to the United States.

Will Climate Change Increase Migration From the Marshall Islands?

This summer, I assisted with a study spearheaded by Maxine Burkett, a Wilson Center global fellow and a professor at the William S. Richardson School of Law at the University of  Hawaiʻi, that sought to find out how the impacts of climate change have affected  decisions within the Marshallese community that migrated to Hawaiʻi. With the help of local Micronesian NGOs, church groups, and the Marshall Islands Consulate, our team of researchers and translators recorded diverse perspectives on climate change from this community, many of whose members have seen its effects firsthand. “I live right next to the ocean [in the Marshall Islands] so I am worried [that the] rising sea level will come and destroy my place. I cannot plant anything there; the soil is not rich; if I cannot grow crops, I cannot sell it to the market,” said one community member.

The study, however, found that to date, Marshallese do not perceive climate change as playing a large role in the decision to migrate. Instead, the decision is intimately interrelated with pull factors, such as access to education, healthcare services, and job opportunities. However, climate change has had an effect on their decision to return to the islands. While many Marshallese have sought education in Hawaiʻi in order to eventually return to the Marshalls with new skills, many fear for the future of their homeland as the impacts of climate change are increasingly apparent.

Forecasting environmentally induced migration is very difficult. Many Marshallese people we interviewed expressed a strong resistance to leaving their homeland. “I don’t want to leave my country for anything. Only when it’s really been wiped off the map or sunken [will I leave],” said another Marshallese we interviewed. Yet life in the islands appears more difficult: more homes are inundated by king tides; salt water intrusion is rising; and dependence on government aid for fresh water is increasing.

Migration is a personal decision; the tipping point varies from person to person. While the study found that climate change may not yet be a factor in migration, as more homes are destroyed and supplies of natural resources and food diminish, migration to locations with better infrastructure, such as the capital city of Majuro or to Hawaiʻi, could increase.

“Go, go, go”: The Challenges of Adapting to a New Way of Life

Migration from the Marshalls to Hawaiʻi has brought a whole new set of challenges. In many cases, Hawaiʻi offers increased job opportunities, but at a price. For many Marshallese who migrated to cities like Honolulu, adapting from a slower-paced lifestyle to the hustle and bustle of a large city has been difficult. “At home [the Marshall Islands], you don’t really have to worry about a job or anything. I mean we get up, go fish, and have our own plants, breadfruit trees, and coconuts; everything is just there. Life was more relaxing compared to here. [In Hawaiʻi] you just have to go, go, go,” said a third interviewee.

The United States doesn’t seem like the “land of the free“ to many migrants. In the Marshalls, the population predominately own their property, and in many cases, could survive off subsistence farming and fishing. Their lives in Hawaiʻi—which are dominated by rent checks, utility bills, and work schedules—can prove to be confining. Further, as a small minority in a Western, globalized society, the Marshallese must manage their Micronesian identity and cultural practices while facing the challenge of assimilating to a new community: “We suffer discrimination. They call us cockroaches. There is violence between Hawaiians and Micronesian people,” said another interviewee.

The United States, the state of Hawaiʻi, and the government of the Marshall Islands need to be aware of how climate change affects the Marshalls to better prepare for potentially increasing numbers of internal and international migrants. Marshallese-to-English language services need to be implemented in Hawaiʻi to help the migrant population adapt to new ways of life. The Marshallese government needs to continue to build local community resilience to help resist environmental shocks while also constructing a contingency plan for when some of the 24 inhabited islands are no longer “habitable” without significant government aid.

The specter of climate change will continue to change environments the world over. Studies like this one help us understand the complex push and pull factors of migration, so we can better prepare for the impacts of climate change on people’s decisions to stay—or to go.