“As new energy options emerge to meet global demand, nations that lead stand to gain; should the U.S. sit on the sidelines, it does so at considerable risk to our national security,” advises the latest report from CNA’s Military Advisory Board (MAB), a group of retired generals and admirals.

The report, Advanced Energy and U.S. National Security, argues that the United States take a leading role in the development of “advanced energy,” which the authors define broadly as the set of technologies that are “more globally accessible, clean, and safe,” such as battery storage, energy efficiency, and renewable sources of power.

As “new centers of demand and supply, new energy sources, and new methods of storage and use” arise, the authors say that “trade relationships and geopolitical dependencies molded by energy needs will be reshaped, resulting in new allies and adversaries alike.”

“This report is a clarion call for U.S. strategic leadership on advanced energy to ensure that the United States is at the leading and competitive edge of the global transition to advanced energy, which is already enabling countries like China to use their quest for global energy resources to reshape global geopolitics,” says Sherri Goodman, former deputy undersecretary of defense and former executive director of the MAB.

Making Military Operations More Secure

Advanced energy technologies could dramatically revolutionize how American armed forces confront 21st century conflicts, according to the report. Transporting energy to the frontlines is among the toughest, costliest, and the riskiest logistical functions the military must perform. During the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, over 1,000 soldiers were killed in fuel convoys and in 2011, the Pentagon spent over $20 billion on air conditioning for troops stationed in the Middle East. “Reducing the need to refuel, whether by lowering fuel consumption or finding alternatives to liquid fuels, is a priority as DOD seeks to improve operational effectiveness and lower risk,” the MAB writes.

Military bases, too, could benefit from these technologies. In 2015, the Department of Defense spent $3.9 billion on electricity for its facilities worldwide, mostly from commercial grids. But these grids, often outfitted with aging equipment and obsolete technology, are susceptible to serious disruptions and enemy attacks. To minimize the risks, the MAB recommends that defense facilities adopt advanced energy technologies – the military already operates several solar power plants – to protect them from commercial power disruptions and save money at the same time.

Climate Peace and Energy Diplomacy

Overall, curtailing the world’s dependence on fossil fuels and mitigating climate change could potentially reduce their impact on new conflicts. A growing body of scholarship suggests that fossil fuel production and climate change could exacerbate conflict, though there is still much debate over causality. Former Wilson Center fellow Jeff D. Colgan has argued that under certain regimes, oil production makes interstate conflict more likely. A 2013 study published in Science found that “anthropogenic climate change has the potential to substantially increase conflict around the world, relative to a world without climate change” (although that study’s methods were criticized by others in the field). And in 2015, researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara and Columbia University concluded “that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict,” among other factors.

As a result, advanced energy technologies could do more for U.S. national security than simply streamline battlefield logistics or protect military infrastructure. Mitigating the effects of climate change could decrease the likelihood of resource-related conflicts, thus reducing the need for costly interventions. Working together to help vulnerable countries better adapt to climate impacts could also be a promising pathway to promote peace. Perhaps as a tactical move, the advanced energy report – unlike prior MAB reports on climate change – does not mention climate change as a “threat multiplier” or focus on climate mitigation or adaptation as tools for increasing U.S. national security.

“CNA knows its target audience. Therefore the authors use language that will not derail the discussion before it starts under the current administration,” says ECSP Senior Advisor and Ohio University Professor Geoff Dabelko.

Notably, the report’s authors suggest that helping developing nations adopt advanced energy technologies could also bolster U.S. diplomatic and economic strength: “When it comes to spreading energy to emerging parts of the world, we assess that electrons are as important as elections when it comes to global influence,” the authors write.

“Supporting America’s technological innovation with U.S. leadership on advanced energy in emerging markets in Africa, India, and Asia will enable the United States to maintain its strategic partnerships in these regions, and support our diplomatic, economic, and security needs at home and abroad,” says Goodman.

Falling Behind in the Race for Advanced Energy

The United States “is falling behind” in the race to adopt advanced energy, says the MAB, losing ground to competing upstarts like China, which has emerged “as the single most prominent player in advanced energy, and the single greatest challenger to the U.S. in setting and leading this trajectory.”

But the MAB argues that the United States “is still in a position to lead an advanced energy transition,” provided U.S. leaders move swiftly to accept a set of core responsibilities:

1. Develop and stay committed to a well-articulated vision of energy efficiency and energy independence;
2. Stimulate innovation by incentivizing research, facilitating public-private partnerships, and ramping up public support for renewable power;
3. Encourage the use of advanced energy at home to reap the associated economic benefits and to provide a model of sustainability for other nations;
4. Embrace an international approach by sharing technical expertise with allies and welcoming new partnerships with countries of strategic importance.

The report cautions that the cost of ignoring these recommendations and contemporary economic trends will be severe: “If we fail to remove barriers to embracing advanced energy at home, we may… find it difficult to assume and capitalize on a leadership role in the advanced energy economy, even as the rest of the world forges ahead.” In the face of stiff global competition, the United States must make a concerted effort to ensure that its economy and armed forces remain at the forefront of innovation in the long-term. As the MAB warns, “We must make choices now, knowing that the impact of these choices may not be felt for a decade or more down the road.”

Yet, there are several reasons to be optimistic about the country’s future in a new era of advanced energy. Though the United States still has fewer renewable energy jobs than other countries – 777,000 jobs, compared to 876,000 jobs in Brazil and 3.643 million jobs in China – its renewable energy industries are expanding rapidly. The U.S. Energy Information Agency projects American solar electricity generation to increase from 21 gigawatts in 2016 to 32 gigawatts by the end of 2018, and a Department of Energy report published in January found that 374,000 Americans work in the solar industry, a 25 percent jump from 2015 and double the number of workers at coal, oil, and natural gas power plants. The wind industry is enjoying a similarly rapid rate of expansion; it is expected to add over 50,000 jobs and generate $85 billion in economic activity by 2020.

Will these trends continue, now that the United States has withdrawn from Paris agreement? According to the MAB, “we have the standing, the expertise, and, with advanced energy technologies, the tools to secure an energy-independent future for ourselves and to improve the energy environment worldwide. We have only to be resolute.”