A report by the European Union on global food security finds 240 million people are in food stress thanks to conflict, refugee situations, flooding, drought, and El Niño. Part of a 2012 commitment by the EU to better target the root causes of food insecurity, the report analyzes the hunger situation in 70 countries and provides deeper analysis for 20. The number of countries covered has increased from last year’s iteration thanks to the effects of a particularly strong El Niño, which has caused abnormally wet or dry conditions in 30 countries, affecting the food security of 80 million people. Overall global agriculture production remained near average in 2015, however, thanks to strong wheat harvests in Russia, Europe, and Pakistan.

A “paradigm shift” is needed in how disaster risk assessments are done, according to a report from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, an organization managed by the World Bank. For too long, disaster risks have been considered according to static measures of vulnerability, creating an incomplete picture of future challenges, write Stuart Fraser et al. Disaster-related losses have increased tenfold since the 1970s and the trend is expected to continue in that direction barring significant change. Climate change, population growth, and economic growth in some places and disruption in others need to be better accounted for among the dynamic factors at play. More than 300 million additional people will be exposed to flooding risks around the world by 2050, for example. And in 14 of the world’s 20 largest cities, population is expected to increase at least 40 percent in the next 15 years. Modeling software and risk management policies can help decision-makers prepare for these changes, if properly utilized.