A new article from the Wilson Center’s own Roger-Mark De Souza explores how population trends can bolster community resilience in the face of climate change and other security threats. De Souza argues that demographic trends such as age structure help determine how well a population is able to respond to and bounce back from shocks, especially environmental ones like drought and famine.

“If you really care about how we can address, in a very innovative way, these critical issues around resilience, you must look at demographics,” he said in a recent Wilson Center NOW interview for World Population Day.

The article is part of a new special edition of the SAIS Review of International Affairs, “The Era of Man: Environmental Security on a Changing Planet,” that examines how finite natural resources and climate change are affecting geopolitics and security.

The edition features pieces by Michael Werz and Max Hoffman analyzing climate change-fueled migration; Sharon Burke and Emily Schneider on strengthening the U.S. electrical grid in the face of climate change and cyberterrorism; and Caitlin Werrell, Francesco Femia, and Troy Sternberg on the environmental drivers behind the revolutions in Egypt and Syria.

Werrell et al. point out that Egypt and Syria both experienced major natural resource strain in the years prior to their uprisings, with a four-year drought in Syria that drove 200,000 rural inhabitants into cities, and food riots in Egypt after the global wheat crisis increased prices. Curiously, however, two major databases that measure natural resource strain, the ND-GAIN Index and Fragile State Index, cited positive gains in environmental trends leading up to the crises. This failure suggests improvements are needed in how environmental drivers are incorporated into these and other measures of state fragility.

Demographic Resilience

Population dynamics play an underappreciated role in environmental security and building resilience to political and social instability, writes De Souza, a concept he calls “demographic resilience.” Youth bulges, gender dynamics, and urbanization affect state stability just as much as natural resource scarcity and population and environment trends often interact with one another. These interactions are especially important in light of the looming challenges of climate change.

Research by Population Action International shows countries with large youth populations are twice as likely to experience civil conflict as compared to countries with older populations. Very large youth populations – the median age in Iraq is just 20 – put a tremendous burden on governments, which have to provide more and more schools, job opportunities, and other services, writes De Souza. If young people are unable to access these opportunities, they can quickly become disenfranchised and more likely to participate in unrest or even join radical organizations like ISIS and Boko Haram. “Research shows that when more than 40 percent of a population is very young, that it serves as a multiplier for additional conflict and violence within the community,” says De Souza.

Some may turn to natural resource exploitation, believing their involvement is part of a “meaningful struggle” but actually fueling violence and corruption. De Souza explains how this played out in Afghanistan, where large numbers of young people and lack of opportunity facilitated a drug trade that funded insurgency. Similarly, the presence of diamonds and oil in youthful Sierra Leone and Nigeria resulted in instability and rebellion.

Two Sides to Cities

Urbanization is another demographic factor that can contribute to, or detract from, resilience. Two-thirds of the world population is expected in live in cities by 2050. While this can create economic opportunity, urbanization can lead to marginalization as well. “We know that there’s an urban advantage because of economies of scale, because of a concentration of people,” says De Souza. “But there’s increasing marginalization in urban settlements, particularly in vulnerable, fragile settlements.” This is often due to overcrowded and unstable housing, lack of social networks, fragmented support systems, and young people who cannot find meaningful employment.

Coastal cities also face major threats to infrastructure, from extreme weather events to sea-level rise, and it’s often the poorest who live in the most exposed and susceptible areas. The precarious mixture of fragilities and shocks that cities face “can act as tinder waiting to ignite,” writes De Souza.

The final component of demographic resilience is women’s rights. Researchers have found that the greater the gap in the treatment of women and men, the greater the potential a country has to engage in conflict inside and outside the state. Conversely, countries with greater gender equality have shown higher propensities for supporting peace. Efforts to achieve gender equity, then, contribute to a more peaceful world. In addition, many in the development, security, and humanitarian sphere have recognized that women can play important peacebuilding roles in conflict and post-conflict situations.

If governments focus on ensuring opportunities for young people, gender equality, and well-integrated urban areas, they can achieve demographic resilience, writes De Souza, and be better prepared to battle environmental change and other shocks and stressors.