Between sessions on the value of creating a physical expression of digital brands (Evernote socks) and Bitcoin, this year’s South by South West (SXSW) in Austin, Texas, featured newcomers from a different background: the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

The National Intelligence Council hosted a panel at the SXSW festival this year in Austin, Texas, with much less confetti.

Between sessions on the value of creating a physical expression of digital brands (Evernote socks) and Bitcoin, this year’s South by South West (SXSW) in Austin, Texas, featured newcomers from a different background: the U.S. National Intelligence Council.

Every four years, the National Intelligence Council produces what in the admittedly niche world of U.S. government publications might be considered a best-seller. The Global Trends Report, which ends up on the president’s desk to be shared with the national security team, highlights national and global security threats for the next 20 years and always elicits buzz in the beltway.

The unclassified report includes not just tomorrow’s intelligence and security issues – cybersecurity and the latest warfighting technology – but social and environmental concerns. Development trends, natural resource challenges, demographic shifts, science and technology breakthroughs, worldwide changes in ideas and identities all input into the report and fill out a series of plausible global scenarios to illustrate alternative futures over the next 20 years. The next version of the Global Trends Report is now in the works for delivery to the Oval Office in 2016.

Increasingly over the years, the Global Trends series has reached out to widen its circle of involvement beyond the intelligence community and think tank world, thus finding itself at SXSW this March. The once geek-free festival, focused initially on creative multimedia types linked to music and film, is now replete with all sorts of techies and is a hot bed for “what’s next.” It drew upwards of 70,000 attendees this year, filling every hotel and campground for miles, not to mention hundreds of thousands of followers online. Not a bad place to get the word out about the Global Trends process.

To be sure, a lot of excitement is still generated by the likes of Kanye West and Jay Z. SXSW is not the perfect venue to solicit fresh ideas – if you want to meet the same old crowd. But if you want new ideas it just might. More than 80 percent of those at SXSW were under age 44 and more than 80 countries were represented. It wasn’t only Global Trends that brought more traditional foreign policy themes this year either; there were multiple sessions on cybersecurity and terrorism. Last year, former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden spoke via a video feed from Russia, urging attendees to help remedy the U.S. government’s surveillance of its citizens. This year, Julian Assange of WikiLeaks notoriety spoke to Austin via satellite.

The Creative Side of the Not-So-Dark Art

Alongside the packed SXSW panel, which was abuzz with lively questions from a mix of students, media types, intelligence aficionados, and traditional academics, the National Intelligence Council also publically unveiled a new Tumblr page. The blog features seven preliminary vignettes previewing changes in international development, the environment, global health, governance, international politics, technology, and of course, national security. Each vignette spans a timeline between 5 and 20 years out and includes key assumptions and uncertainties which could “up-end” the scenario. The idea, again, is to generate feedback for revision and alternative takes by reaching new and diverse audiences.

For example, in the vignette on development, it’s suggested that traditional donor assistance from Western countries will continue to trend downwards, as it has over the past decade, undercutting aid as a “tool of national power.” At the same time, humanitarian assistance may see a proportional bump up as a result of more natural disasters like floods, typhoons, and droughts and man-made disasters, like civil unrest and conflict, giving rise to a “sea of migrants” fleeing one shore for another. This scenario also ventures that the private sector, along with foundational and philanthropic organizations’ successes, “will continue to chip away at the notion that foreign government aid organizations are the best stewards to tackle development challenges in poor countries.” The implication: Many Western bureaucracies are not nimble enough to tackle today’s tough, fast-paced development challenges.

On the assumptions ledger, the scenario notes extreme poverty is slowly being eradicated “but a severe and prolonged global economic downturn will [still] leave millions in poverty across the globe.” This picture will darken further if China and India falter economically and population growth remains rapid in developing countries. Further, classic donor assistance mechanisms, where funds flow from capital to capital, could be supplanted by other aid mechanisms that allow funds to “flow directly to provinces or cities.” Lastly, the scenario assumes the “poorest global citizens of the future are more likely to be in ‘pockets’ of middle-income countries rather than in any single country,” further rendering common country-level aid agreements awkward at best.

As for uncertainties, the pilot question posed is: Will the private sector adapt to its new prominence in aid and be able to provide social good and reinforce corporate responsibility? Or will they slowly migrate towards boosting profits and seeing aid only as an avenue to opening up new markets? Another uncertainty pivots around the idea that countries may narrow the number of partners they give to, pushing development “towards a more security- and stability-focused targeted approach…to exert maximum influence.”

Join the Conversation

These efforts are part of a broader movement afoot for the Global Trend series. SXSW actually predates the first public release of a Global Trends Report (1997) by 10 years. Both entities have faced a similar organizational challenge: how to connect with the rest of the world. For SXSW it meant reaching out beyond local musicians and bands, and for the National Intelligence Council, it means reaching out beyond the usual international relations folks and geographic and functional area experts in Washington, DC. Each is appealing to the best creative minds and ideas in their fields to greatly expand the conversation, breaking down classic silos, leaving well-trodden relationships behind, and opening up new, formerly untapped networks.

It seems safe to say that SXSW has become a different place than it was 30 years ago, with more a more virtual presence and mixed audience, where fresh-faced musicians are just as likely to stumble into intense-faced intelligence analysts as they are a celebrity. Hollywood, say hello to Langley, and vice versa. Time will tell if the National Intelligence Council is able to expand its process as effectively.

Futures-oriented theorists, development practitioners, and hopefully some of those 70,000 music, film, and tech fans at SXSW may find these initial previews of Global Trends 2035 right on track, seriously flawed, or simply not interesting enough to power down their iPhones. But again, that is the whole point of networking with the rest of the world early on in the process.

What do you say?