The Sahel – spreading from the Red Sea to the Atlantic as the Sahara Desert transitions to Sudanian savanna – is drought prone and suffers from chronic food insecurity. Yet, the region also boasts the highest fertility rates in the world, and the highest rates of marriage for young girls. This creates unique vulnerabilities that are being compounded by climate change, says ECSP’s Roger-Mark De Souza in an episode of Wilson Center NOW.

De Souza recently participated in the Sahel Leadership Program in Niamey, Niger, as part of the OASIS Initiative. The project is organized by the University of California at Berkeley and the African Institute for Development Policy to develop leadership in the Sahel to empower adolescent girls, expand access to voluntary family planning, and adapt local agricultural practices to climate change. De Souza spoke to groups of agronomists, economists and regional experts, helping them work across disciplines, improve communication with journalists, and present their research.

Growth in Africa’s population over the next few decades will be driven largely by Sahel countries – Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Nigeria, Chad, Sudan and South Sudan, and Eritrea. De Souza reveals a key driver of what appears to be a contradiction: rapid population growth in a desolate environment, saying “Many of these women would like to have access to reproductive health services, but are unable to access them because of distance, unavailability of materials they need, cultural taboos associated with these issues, women’s traditional roles, and the status of women in the Sahel.”

These challenges are exacerbated by climate change, as there has been significant drought in the past decade. “It’s anticipated that every two years a country in the Sahel can experience drought, and in every decade can experience severe drought,” says De Souza. According to a report by OASIS, by 2050 the Sahel could experience temperatures 10 degrees higher than today, rainfall will be sporadic, and soil moisture for plants will decrease via evaporation.

Outside Niamey, De Souza and the project team met with local farmers who were adopting new agricultural and water management techniques. He recalls meeting a young woman who showed him the solar panel used by her community to greatly increase their agricultural yield in desert-like conditions. The project demonstrated the potential for sustainable agriculture in a changing climate to be a source of wealth, economic stability, education, and empowerment.

To build resilience, De Souza urges a departure from the traditional emphasis on responding to shocks, like famine, towards recognizing the chronic condition of the region and the need for early planning and early warning systems that can mobilize communities and donors in the face of increasing climate volatility.