By 2045, global population will be north of 9 billion with increased urbanization and migration, natural resource stress, improved medical technologies, greater use of robotic labor, and a shift towards lifelong (and increasingly online) learning, according to a recent report from the UK Ministry of Defense.

The fifth Global Strategic Trends report, released in April, examines 13 overarching themes across eight global regions, plus outer space, to project trends over the next 30 years that could have significant defense, policy, and strategic implications.

The report also analyzes potential shocks that may result in a diversion from projected trends. For example, rapid medical advancements could dramatically extend the human lifespan and create social tension if only available to wealthy populations.

Each section, covering themes as broad ranging as corruption and health, includes specific defense and security implications. In the case of gender, the report says that women will likely play a greater role in front-line combat, while sexual violence “has the potential to be a significant factor in [state] instability.” Defense and security organizations will need to incorporate gender equity targets in response to increased women’s engagement in the armed forces.

In addition to examining trends in thematic areas, the report also predicts the rise of emerging economies, such as China, India, and Brazil, onto the global stage. Mexico is also predicted to show strong economic growth, although the Latin America and Caribbean region as a whole may see limited growth as a result of weak political institutions, the report says.

China’s rapid economic growth could result in the country having a defense budget similar to that of the United States by mid-century, for example, though “the U.S. is still likely to remain, militarily, the most powerful country in the world.” India is also likely to enhance its military capacities, the report says, though not at the same rate as China or the U.S. Russia will probably increase its military spending as well, but will fall behind China, the U.S., and India.

Rapid Urbanization, Growth Pose Capacity Challenges

Demography is the first thematic chapter. Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to face significant challenges due to its large youth population, the report says, with some countries facing a doubling of their population by 2045.

Many young people will move to urban areas, as “city populations in the region are likely to grow 45 percent faster than in rural areas, with 60 percent of people in Africa likely to live in cities by 2050.” Such rapid growth poses a challenge to governments to provide services at the same pace and prevent the expansion of slums. Additionally, countries may face conflict and unrest if youth have limited economic opportunities and high unemployment rates.

Large movements of people have the power to shift how people think about themselves. Increased migration may cause people to rely more heavily on “virtual communities” than on nationality, the report says. Migration will also likely shift the demographics of certain countries, particularly those like the United States and Canada, which already have ethnically diverse populations.

Although migration itself does not pose a security threat, rapid urbanization may “lead to pressure on infrastructure (and the environment) which could contribute to social tensions.”

A 30-Year Climate Clock

The environment chapter may be the most dire. If greenhouse gas levels are not reduced in the next 30 years, countries around the world could see tremendous natural disasters and increased risk of food insecurity. Rising sea levels and flooding will threaten coastal cities and low-lying islands, resulting in mass displacement and destruction of infrastructure. Currently, between 270 and 310 million people are at risk of coastal flooding, with that number likely to increase as global temperatures rise and vulnerable populations grow, the report says.

Natural resource management will be a critical global concern in the coming decades as well. Europe is likely to face increased water scarcity and limited agricultural productivity. A decline in energy resources in the Middle East and North Africa could lead to social unrest and instability, particularly if youth continue to face high under-employment. As countries look to the polar regions for natural resources, conflicts could emerge over questions of governance and commercial exploitation of oil and gas reserves.

Gender Equality “Unlikely”

Global inequality will remain a major challenge, with gender disparities in income and opportunity remaining drivers of poverty and insecurity. Women in developed countries will continue to enjoy closer parity with their male counterparts, the report says, but complete equality remains unlikely.

Violence against women will continue to be a concern, with the report estimating that figures on gender-based violence will only slightly decline by 2045. Key factors that could lead to gender equity include female participation in politics and decision-making, employment outside the home, and increased educational opportunities for women and girls.

Future Depends on Decisions Today

Many of these problems can be avoided if leaders make strategic decisions today, and the report strives to give decision-makers the information they need to make the right choices.

Large youth populations can be harnessed into a demographic dividend for countries, if policymakers take steps to make health care more accessible and create opportunities for young people. And the availability of natural resources depends on their effective management, as well as more inclusive governance. Combating corruption is another pathway to development, in terms of promoting equity and reducing the potential for conflict, but also in managing natural resources in a transparent and socially responsible way.

Trends in technological development hold great potential for benefits in “almost all aspects of human life,” the report says. Data management and analysis, medicine, and even the way we work are likely to be impacted by new technology. By 2045, robots are likely to be used in more traditionally “human” roles, including customer service, surgery, combat, and caring roles. The cost of launching space vehicles is also likely to decline, resulting in potential for new economic opportunities.

There is great potential to promote development through education, the report says, if current educational systems adapt to suit the needs of more online learners and tech-savvy students.

But technological innovations could have negative impacts too. Cheaper space launches could bring new military and criminal applications, and as more information becomes integrated into online systems, the threat of a disruptive cyber-attack will grow. Developments in warfare will likely “lead to increasingly effective non-lethal capabilities and increase the precision of weapons,” transforming the nature of conflict. And while the availability of online learning tools could improve access for hard-to-reach populations, reliance on the internet and technology could also result in increased educational inequality.

Failure to take action on these trends now could result in increased conflict, destabilization, natural resource scarcity, and unemployment, particularly for youth. While the report is largely negative in its outlook for the next 30 years, the authors do emphasize the potential for another path.

“There is of course scope for human ingenuity to have a significant impact on the future,” the report says, “and hence there are considerable grounds for optimism.” By taking steps to address these long-term trends today, states can reap benefits while avoiding the worst effects of a changing world.