This past December, Bangladesh turned 42, bringing the country Henry Kissinger once predicted would become a “basket case” into comfortable middle age (though perhaps this analogy breaks down for countries like Switzerland, age 722).

At first glance, however, one would be forgiven for thinking Bangladesh has been dealt a rough hand. Since 1971, in an area no bigger than the state of Iowa, population has more than doubled, from 71 to 154 million. Ninety percent of Bangladeshis are Muslim, but there are significant minority populations of Hindus, Christians, and Buddhists concentrated in the northern and southeastern districts, occasionally leading to ethnic tensions. Cutting across all of this is the convergence and combined delta of two of the biggest rivers in the world: the Ganges and Brahmaputra. Although these rivers bring life, greenery, and sustenance they also make Bangladesh one of the most vulnerable countries to flooding, both from the mountains and the sea. Cyclones are also prevalent, swept up by the Bay of Bengal.

But not only has Kissinger’s prediction not come true, there have been significant development successes over the last few decades from this little-known underdog.

Getting Ahead of Rapid Population Growth

The first success story is how an extremely poor country, fresh from revolution, blunted a trajectory of very rapid population growth to become an example to the world in expanding access to reproductive health and family planning.

After independence, Bangladesh’s population growth rate was one of the highest in the world: 2.71 percent at its peak, or on pace to nearly triple in total size in 40 years. Instead, by 2010 it had decreased to 1.38 percent and total population stands at around 154 million. By contrast, in Bangladesh’s former other half, Pakistan, which had a slightly smaller population at the split, population growth remains very high (3.07 percent) and there are more than 180 million people today.

Most striking is how this was achieved in a Muslim majority country without the use of coercive measures. There were three factors that led to the slowing of growth:

• Girls’ education: With more education available, particularly higher education, more girls and women were more likely to have access to and practice family planning. More girls in school also helped to increase the age they started having children.
• Availability of mother and child health care: More widespread health care, with an emphasis on pre- and neonatal care, lowered infant mortality rates and reduced the imperative to produce as many children as possible as insurance against early death.
• Promotion of family planning by the government and other civil society groups: Endorsement of contraceptives by Muslim imams and Bangladeshi clergy helped eliminate many religious taboos and government funding gave the health system the long-term support it needed.

In such a small area, the greater the population, the greater the strain on resources. Bangladeshi leaders realized this early on and took the initiative to enact policies to reduce rapid population growth, making subsequent development initiatives easier in the process.

Innovations in Food Production

Bangladesh’s second success came out of its people’s most important livelihood: food production. During the last 40 years, production of the country’s staple crop, rice, increased substantially, making it the fourth-largest producer globally. This ability to keep up with and literally fuel population growth has meant only one major food-related disaster in four decades – the devastating famine of 1974, only three years after independence, which helped determine the government’s decision to invest heavily in food security.

Steady increases in rice production can be attributed to significant investment by the government and non-government organizations (NGOs) in research, crop quality, irrigation, and pesticides. The best example of this can be seen in the increase in rice yields from October to March. Despite this harvest being in the dry season, better irrigation has meant boro rice can be reliably cultivated, relieving pressure on the yields of the other two flood-dependent varieties of rice and significantly increasing supply overall.

These innovations were in part influenced by the Green Revolution – a package of adaptive technologies and innovative farming techniques that increased yields dramatically during the 1960s across the developing world – and has led to positive results for Bangladesh’s food production. The trend of experimentation continues today, with similar efforts being made to explore the feasibility of large-scale aquaculture.

Natural Disaster Resilience

Completing Bangladesh’s trilogy of success is a quality that has helped put the country on the map in many research and policymaking circles: resilience in the face of natural disasters.

From the north, the country faces seasonal flooding, as Himalayan ice melt periodically floods the banks of the Ganges and Brahmaputra. From the south, a regular bombardment of cyclones – one severe cyclone every three years since 1971 – and rising sea levels brought on by climate change. Overall, flooding may shrink the amount of dry land available by as much as 17 percent by 2050 and displace millions.

But despite worsening climate conditions and more people than ever living in low-lying areas, the impact of natural disasters has gone down steadily. Cyclone Bhola in 1970 had an official death toll between 300,000 and 500,000; Cyclone Gorky in 1991 killed 135,000 people; Cyclone Sidr in 2007, 10,000; Cyclone Aila in 2009, less than 200. These are still staggering numbers, but the progress is remarkable.

The reduction in fatalities can be credited to a two-pronged disaster management program. First, early warning systems, such as radio broadcasts and sirens, were installed in the most vulnerable areas. Second, multipurpose cyclone shelters were built alongside schools. During Cyclones Sidr and Aila, local children were able to advise and move their elders to the shelters to escape the devastation. This ability to communicate across different age groups in a country with such a large population is an example to be followed in other climate vulnerable regions.

Tomorrow’s Tests

Will these successes continue into the next 40 years? Bangladesh’s past history of adaptation and resilience suggests yes, but there will be major obstacles.

While population growth is not as rapid as it once was, rural Bangladeshis are leaving their villages for the city in droves, especially the capital, Dhaka. The danger lies in severe overcrowding that could overwhelm the local labor market, resources, and infrastructure. Although trying to control the flow of people is foolish, the government should invest in smaller urban centers and build hospitals, schools, and industry, thus incentivizing migration to cities other than Dhaka.

Educating Bangladesh’s largest demographic – more than 56 percent of people are under 24 years of age – is also essential to continuing these steps toward prosperity. Supplying this generation of young people with the tools to become engineers, doctors, and teachers is critical to transitioning from an age structure defined by “youth bulge” – a disproportionate number of young dependents – to a more mature age structure with a chance to achieve the “demographic dividend,” a phenomenon in which a larger proportion of working-age individuals boosts national productivity.

More dramatic climate change effects will also be an issue, especially if rapid urbanization puts more people in harm’s way. But Bangladesh remains one of the most informed countries on how to adapt to changing environmental conditions. Political parties on both sides more often than not agree on climate policy, producing agreements like the Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan and two climate change funds (one funded by the government itself, the other by international donors). More money is becoming available for climate change mitigation and adaptation, but the challenge will be making sure change is effective and enduring.

Bangladesh has the potential to transform and change just as much over the next 40 years as it did over the last. The key to success or failure will be the spread of education and transition to a knowledge-based economy from a labor-based economy. Millions of Bangladeshis are studying at post graduate levels in the United States and United Kingdom. With a globalized education system and Bangladesh embracing it, the next 40 years could see massive progress.